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2026-07-17 20:34:19
[US Import Prices Rebound Unexpectedly in June; Growth Remains Strong Excluding Oil, Inflationary Pressures Remain Sticky] ⑴ US import prices rose approximately 0.3% month-on-month in June, significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.7% decline. The previous figure was revised upward to a 1.7% increase, indicating that global supply chain cost pressures have not subsided as quickly as expected. ⑵ Excluding oil, import prices rose 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, indicating that even with a slight decline in the energy component, imported inflation for core commodities remains highly sticky. This is closely related to recent dollar trends and price dynamics of major trading partners. ⑶ Export prices fell approximately 0.6% month-on-month, weaker than the market expectation of a 0.4% decline. The previous figure was revised upward to a 1.2% increase, and the year-on-year increase still recorded 10.2%, reflecting the continued strong pricing power of US-made goods in the international market. ⑷ From a market psychology perspective, the unexpectedly strong import prices will weaken market bets on the Fed's potential for interest rate cuts this year. Combined with the complex signals conveyed by previous housing data, the uncertainty of the inflation path remains the core variable in the interest rate expectation game.
