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2026-07-17 21:20:13
[US-Iran military confrontation continues to escalate, crude oil prices see significant weekly gains; institutions warn of significantly increased supply disruption risks] ⑴ The US continues to strike Iranian military targets, and Iran fires at strongholds in other Gulf countries, escalating geopolitical conflict and driving crude oil futures higher, with a considerable gain expected this week. ⑵ Institutional analysis points out that recent events largely align with the baseline scenario of "a bumpy recovery of oil flows with intermittent bursts," but the increased intensity of the conflict has significantly increased the probability of a more unfavorable scenario. ⑶ The so-called more unfavorable scenario refers to the possibility of a prolonged and substantial disruption to oil transport routes, further compressing the global supply buffer. The market has not yet fully priced in this tail risk. ⑷ From a trading psychology perspective, oil prices have responded positively to each military engagement, but if the attack expands to oil production or key transshipment facilities, price elasticity will shift from the previous geopolitical premium repair to a supply gap pricing model, and volatility is expected to rise further.
