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2026-07-18 06:06:12
According to the latest data from CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in July is 85.6%, maintaining the current interest rate level, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 14.4%. Looking ahead to the September interest rate decision, the probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 51.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 7.5%. This data reflects the current market expectation for the Fed's future monetary policy path: a temporary halt to rate hikes in July is highly probable, but there is still a greater than 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, with the possibility of even a 50 basis point rate hike in extreme cases. Overall, the expectation of a rate hike has not completely subsided.
