Amidst heightened volatility across global asset classes, major non-US currencies are actively building upward momentum, determined not to allow the US dollar to maintain its dominance in the foreign exchange market. The euro is awaiting signals from the European Central Bank regarding interest rate hikes, with market traders closely monitoring two key clues: speeches by central bank officials and forward economic guidance, to assess the euro's short-term upside potential. The pound's trajectory will be entirely dependent on key macroeconomic data for direction. The strength or weakness of various employment, inflation, and consumption sub-indices will directly alter the market's pricing logic regarding the Bank of England's interest rate path. Continued geopolitical tensions and strong market expectations of a Fed tightening monetary policy cycle are providing strong support for the dollar. Although the futures market has largely ruled out a Fed rate hike in June, trading is still betting on monetary tightening measures in 2026. Current calculations across various interest rate derivatives contracts indicate an 81% probability of this scenario materializing, and bullish funds are continuously positioning themselves for long dollar positions. Furthermore, the greater the rise in international oil prices, the more likely the Fed will implement a tough tightening policy sooner. Continued increases in energy costs will push up commodity prices across the US, forcing the Fed to tighten liquidity to offset inflationary pressures, creating an overall favorable environment for the dollar. Brent crude oil has touched the $90 per barrel mark for the first time since mid-June. There are objectively existing stabilizing factors that can suppress soaring oil prices: weakening global crude oil demand, the release of strategic petroleum reserves by various countries, and the diversion of spot demand through multiple diversified crude oil supply channels. These multiple buffering forces jointly limit a one-sided and sustained surge in international crude oil prices, significantly compressing the upside potential for further gains. However, the refined oil market lacks similar buffering support conditions. Even if North Sea crude oil prices reach a temporary peak and begin to decline, it is unlikely that gasoline and diesel terminal prices will see a significant drop. The rigidity of costs in the chemical refining process and the low level of global refined oil inventories will continue to support fuel retail prices. This situation indicates that the high-inflation environment in the United States will continue for some time, forcing the Federal Reserve to implement a tightening monetary policy. The US dollar has a medium- to long-term fundamental advantage, but in the short term, rival currencies such as the euro and pound sterling are expected to benefit from expectations of interest rate hikes by their respective central banks and experience a rebound. Even though rising energy prices usually significantly drag down the Eurozone economy, and the euro is under long-term pressure from rising energy import costs, if the European Central Bank continues to release hawkish statements, the euro still has the confidence to counter the rise of the US dollar. The market widely expects the European Central Bank (ECB) not to raise deposit rates in July, but if ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a clear hint of a September rate hike, it will directly push the euro higher against the dollar. The euro's price action is fundamentally anchored to the ECB's policy statements, while the pound's movement will depend on a busy schedule of UK economic data for trading clues. The market anticipates a gradual stabilization in the UK labor market, along with a slowdown in domestic inflation and retail sales growth. A collective weakening of economic indicators will reduce the Bank of England's motivation to tighten monetary policy, prompting risk funds to close out their long positions in pound/dollar and lock in profits. Conversely, if economic indicators significantly exceed market expectations, trading funds will flow back in and heavily buy pound assets. The yen remains under persistent depreciation pressure. Even though Prime Minister Sanae Takashi publicly emphasized the need to guide large pension institutions such as the Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan (GPIF) to increase their allocation to domestic yen assets, the policy statement only provided a brief boost and did not fundamentally reverse the mainstream trading strategy of shorting the yen. Currently, the Japanese yen is the core funding currency for cross-border arbitrage transactions. With global financial market volatility remaining low and investor risk appetite continuing to rise, the scale of arbitrage transactions is further stimulated to expand, continuously dragging down the yen exchange rate.