On Monday (July 27, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4091 per ounce, supported by bargain hunting as the market awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week to assess the latest developments in the Middle East conflict and its impact on inflation. US crude oil opened more than 6% lower due to easing tensions in the Middle East, reducing concerns about insufficient oil supply, and President Trump's decision to "leave some room for maneuver" in diplomatic efforts toward Iran. Meanwhile, the Iranian military announced a suspension of retaliatory strikes against US allies in the Middle East.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks traded mixed on Friday. The Nasdaq, heavily weighted with technology stocks, fell 0.64% to close at 24,975.82, as investors worried about rising capital spending in the artificial intelligence sector ahead of earnings reports from mega-cap companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple next week. Chip stocks led the decline (the Philadelphia S&P Semiconductor Index fell 4.5%, and Intel, despite giving an optimistic quarterly forecast, plunged 7.9%). The S&P 500 edged up 0.05% to 7,411.98, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.46% to close at 51,947.25. The Dow has fallen for three consecutive weeks, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen for two consecutive weeks. Market sentiment was dampened by investor concerns about “massive over-investment” following Alphabet’s announcement last Wednesday of a significant increase in capital spending plans. However, a drop in oil prices (due to profit-taking and news of US-Iran peace talks, despite US missile strikes on Iranian targets) provided some support. The real estate sector surged 2.4% after Digital Realty Trust raised its forecasts, while the materials sector rose 1.44%, driven by International Paper and Smurfit Westrock. Oilfield services company SLB jumped 11% on better-than-expected profits. Economic data showed that US service sector activity accelerated in July, but manufacturing growth slowed to its lowest level since March. Meanwhile, the Trump administration imposed new tariffs on 60 trading partners, citing poor enforcement of mandatory labor bans, while the temporary 10% global tariff expired.

Gold Market

Gold prices rose slightly on Friday, with spot gold at $4,053.29 per ounce, up 0.1%, supported by bargain hunting early last week. So far last week, the price has risen 0.9%. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week to assess the latest developments in the Middle East conflict and its impact on inflation. Independent metals traders noted that gold appears to be bottoming out around $3,950. A clear decision by the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this week would support gold prices, but since the start of the US-backed war against Iran, gold prices have fallen by about 23%, and the market is concerned that war-induced inflation could lead to prolonged high interest rates. Investors generally expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this week. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows traders expect an 82% probability of a rate hike in September. ING analysts believe the recent gold price rebound is mainly driven by bargain hunting and short covering, while high oil prices and rising yields may limit the upside potential. $4,000 is a key short-term level. In other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.96% to $58.18, platinum fell 0.8% to $1,587.17, and palladium fell 1.4% to $1,239.20.

oil market

Oil prices fell sharply by more than 2% on Friday, with Brent crude closing at $98.37 a barrel, down 2.12%, and WTI crude closing at $90.47 a barrel, down 2.05%. This was mainly due to sources saying that efforts to restart stalled US-Iran peace talks were underway, bringing hope to the market for easing tensions. A partner at Again Capital said, "This market loves nothing more than hope." However, influenced by geopolitical conflicts such as the US and Iran exchanging missiles, a sharp decrease in traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi attack on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea (US President Trump subsequently vowed to impose "major military punishment" on Iran and its Houthi allies), oil prices still recorded a significant increase of more than 10% last week. Analysts at Price Futures Group pointed out that the energy market remains fragile, with overall inventories tight and the situation potentially changing rapidly. Iran had previously pressured the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (one of the world's most important energy transport routes after the Strait of Hormuz) if the US continued its attacks on its power infrastructure. The Houthis announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia on Monday, and Saudi Arabia is diverting oil transport via pipelines to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Kpler ship tracking data shows that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has remained at three per day for the past three days, with two more entering the Persian Gulf on Thursday (including the empty VLCC "Noble"). On July 23, 32 commodity carriers passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (up from 26 the previous day), and two more had passed by the 24th. UBS analysts stated that "ships are still sailing as long as conditions permit, and there is no complete blockade." JPMorgan analysts, in a report, stated that for every additional month of oil supply disruption, Brent crude prices will rise by about $7 to $8; if the disruption lasts for three months, the average monthly price could rise to around $114 per barrel.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar recorded its biggest weekly gain since mid-June last week, rising 0.7%, with the dollar index edged up 0.01% to 101.45 on Friday, mainly supported by rising oil prices and inflation concerns. The yen suffered its biggest weekly percentage drop in over two months, with the dollar rising 0.02% against the yen to 163.85. However, it still gained nearly 0.9% last week, its strongest weekly performance since May 15th, and briefly touched 163.98 on Thursday, its strongest level since November 1986. Despite Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterating the government's readiness to act in the foreign exchange market, and the US Treasury calling on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates and warning against excessive exchange rate volatility, the market has completely ruled out a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this week. Analysts believe that without a more aggressive rate hike path and other coordinated measures, the intervention will have a limited and short-lived effect. Macquarie strategists pointed out that the yen, as a low-yield currency, is facing trade terms shocks due to rising oil prices, making it a target for speculators, which explains the strong performance of the dollar against the yen after the outbreak of the Iran war. Meanwhile, the market's probability of a rate hike at this week's Federal Reserve meeting has risen to 35.8%, as the escalating situation in Iran reignites inflation concerns. However, JPMorgan's chief economist expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, although at least two members may vote hawkishly against it. The euro fell 0.06% to 1.1369 against the dollar, after a nearly 0.6% drop last week, following the European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged but leave open the possibility of a September rate hike. Chief Economist Lane stated that the current inflation shock is moderate and does not require aggressive measures. Traders currently believe there is a 70.8% probability of a September rate hike by the ECB.

International News

Iranian Foreign Ministry: Information Exchange and Mediation Activities Between Iran and the US Continue On July 26, local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei stated that information exchanges between Iran and the United States are ongoing, and mediators are continuing their work. He also stated that the Iran-US memorandum of understanding is not a lengthy and complex document, but a concise memorandum containing only 14 articles. The international community had expected the US to fulfill its commitments "at least this time," but the US actions have blatantly and seriously violated many aspects of the memorandum, causing diplomatic efforts to be "betrayed for the third time." Source: Iran Willing to Reciprocate with a Ceasefire but Skeptical of the US An Iranian source said that if the US ceases its military strikes, Iran will also cease military operations, but Iran remains "skeptical" of the US's intentions. The source stated that Iran's position remains "responding to attacks with retaliation." If the attacks stop, Iran will also cease its actions. This position has been conveyed to the US. However, Iran is "more skeptical than optimistic" about the US's sincerity in this ceasefire, believing that the decision is more of a tactical consideration. (Xinhua) The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by at least 50 basis points this year is about 61.5%. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 7.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 30.9%, and the probability of a rate hike of at least 50 basis points is 61.5%. The Iranian parliament is reviewing a bill on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, proposing to charge fees for passing ships and restrict Israel and hostile countries. According to Al Jazeera, citing the Iranian state broadcaster, the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, along with several subcommittees on judicial, economic, and civil affairs, is reviewing a new draft bill on the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the specific provisions of the draft have not yet been released to the public, Iranian officials have previously revealed that the bill aims to establish Iran's sovereign jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz and plans to levy passage fees on ships passing through the waterway. In May, Iranian Parliament Deputy Speaker Ali Nikozadeh stated that the draft law explicitly stipulates that Israeli vessels are "absolutely not allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz"; and vessels from "hostile countries" will not be granted passage unless they compensate for losses caused by the war. The Iranian military claims it is prepared for possible airstrikes or ground operations . On the 26th local time, Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Shekarchi stated that the current situation facing the United States is chaotic and unfavorable, and the US has "failed to achieve its established objectives" in the Strait of Hormuz and in weakening Iran. Shekarchi stated that the US is currently seeking a new strategy and does not rule out the possibility of withdrawing from the war, but this "will depend on whether Israel agrees." He also stated that with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to the United States, Iran may face scenarios such as airstrikes or ground military operations in the future. However, in the ground war option, the US "will face greater vulnerability." Shekarchi stated that Iran is fully prepared for all possible scenarios. (CCTV) Positive Progress in Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz Negotiations, Technical Consultations Continue An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that negotiations between Iran and Oman on issues related to the Strait of Hormuz have achieved fruitful preliminary results, and technical and political consultations between the two sides are still progressing smoothly. The Iranian Foreign Ministry further revealed that the two countries have held dedicated technical talks on this matter. During the talks, both sides focused on in-depth discussions regarding common principles and specific operational mechanisms for ensuring the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, while emphasizing that relevant management arrangements must be implemented based on respect for the respective sovereign rights of the two littoral states. Israeli Prime Minister Says War Will Only End When Iranian Regime Collapses On July 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in an interview with Fox News that "the war will only end when the current Iranian regime collapses or is completely weakened to the point of being forced to abandon its nuclear program." Netanyahu also warned that if Iran or its supported armed groups attack Israel, Israel will respond with "very, very strong" force. Netanyahu is about to visit the United States again. In discussing his planned meeting with US President Trump, Netanyahu stated that the focus was not, as previously reported by US media, on "delivering new intelligence regarding Iran's nuclear program," because the military and intelligence agencies of the two countries have been cooperating closely. Netanyahu said the purpose of his trip was to discuss and understand Trump's thoughts, adding that the development of the situation largely "depends on Trump's final decision." (CCTV International News) Iran's Supreme Leader: Supports Hezbollah and Demands a Complete End to Israeli Military Action Against Lebanon Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei responded on the evening of July 26th to a letter from Hezbollah leader Naeem Qassem and his armed forces. The letter stated that in the current regional situation, Hezbollah is a major force resisting Israel and its supporters, and has become an important force inspiring people around the world against hegemony and its proxies. The letter indicated that Hezbollah's continued efforts rely not only on its armed forces but also on the support of the Lebanese people, especially those in the southern region. Mojtaba reiterated that supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon has become a strategic policy of Iran, in accordance with the line established by the late Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei. He stated that Iran will uphold Lebanon's territorial integrity and achieve a full and unconditional end to Israel's military operation in Lebanon as a primary condition for reaching a memorandum of understanding with the United States regarding ending the conflict. Mojtaba also stated that the people of the world can no longer tolerate the "oppression and atrocities" of the United States and Israel, and said that he will continue to adhere to the path of resistance. (CCTV News) Iran Says It Will Retaliate Against Ukraine for Attack on Merchant Ship Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi posted on social media on July 26, condemning Ukraine's attack on an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea. In his post, Araghchi stated that Ukraine "attacked an Iranian merchant ship, resulting in the death of one sailor. This is a blatant violation of the UN Charter, an act at the behest of Israel, intended to drag Europe into its war. In my calls with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Karas and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, I made it clear that Kyiv's 'freeloading' actions will not go unpunished." The Iranian Foreign Ministry previously issued a statement saying that on July 25, an Iranian merchant ship was attacked by Ukraine in the Caspian Sea, resulting in an explosion that killed one crew member and injured another. (CCTV International News)

Domestic News

China Achieves First Full-Scale Three-Dimensional Observation of Typhoon Passage Using Swarm Drones According to the China Meteorological Administration, during Typhoon Noul's impact on China, meteorological researchers used swarm drones for the first time to conduct high-frequency, multi-dimensional observation experiments on the entire typhoon's landfall process. This is also the first time that China has applied swarm drone technology to the observation of the entire typhoon's passage. (CCTV News) " Drama" Shortage! Recruitment Demand Surges 179%, Some Positions Offer Monthly Salaries of 20,000 Yuan. The explosive growth of AI- powered film and television has led to a structural shift in the industry's talent demand, with a continuously expanding shortage of positions such as AI editors and gacha editors. In June of this year, the recruitment demand for AI editors surged by 179% year-on-year, while also driving a 7% increase in traditional editor positions. AI not only makes "one-person film crews" possible but also changes the traditional film and television production process and collaboration model. In the past, filming required teams to gather in the same studio or editing room; now, with a large number of shots generated by AI, creators form "cloud creation" teams, enabling efficient remote collaboration. Industry data shows that AI has compressed film and television production cycles from "calculated in months or years" to "calculated in days," with some single-episode short dramas requiring only a few hours to produce. Efficiency in areas such as special effects and pre-production has generally increased by 3 to 10 times. The monthly salary range for AI-related film and television positions varies depending on individual abilities, generally ranging from 8,000 to 20,000 yuan. (CCTV News)