With Florida's congressional delegation potentially undergoing a major reshuffle—midterm redistricting and the departure of several lawmakers—the Republican Party is expected to gain a net increase of up to eight seats. In the August 18 primaries, the fate of many Sunshine State Republicans could hinge on one Florida resident: President Trump. Trump's endorsement has been crucial in Florida politics for the past decade. However, with only three weeks until the primaries, Trump has so far endorsed only one contested seat, leaving candidates, advisors, and party members across the state anxiously awaiting the results. This primary is a political bellwether for the dollar. A sweeping victory for Trump's endorsers would price in a smoother Republican agenda and a continued hardline geopolitical stance, providing medium-term support for the dollar index, currently hovering above 101; conversely, the dollar could come under pressure due to expectations of diminished Trump power.

The "gold standard" of endorsement

Trump's endorsement holds unique electoral value in Florida politics. Representative Randy Fine, who won a special election last year with Trump's backing, stated bluntly, "I think anyone the president endorses could win. I've been there, I got 83%—not because of my looks or personality, but because of the president." This endorsement effect is not an isolated case. In 2018, Trump's endorsement of Ron DeSantis's first gubernatorial campaign helped the now two-term governor defeat the then-state agriculture commissioner. In other states, while Trump's endorsements often appear near the end of the primary cycle, they have still proven decisive—for example, his vote for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton about a week before the runoff election between him and incumbent Senator John Cornyn ultimately helped to defeat the incumbent Republican senator. Florida Republican Party Chairman Evan Bauer, running in the 2nd district, said, "We're obviously expecting endorsements in Florida, and his endorsement is the gold standard. I think whoever he chooses will win in Florida."

Candidates vie to demonstrate closeness to the president.

Trump's political influence in Florida is being amplified by a deluge of television ads. Republican candidates frequently mention the president in their ads, promising to help, support, or stand with him. In this year's Florida Republican primaries, closeness to Trump is the most persuasive selling point. Ads aired during Bauer's campaign included footage of Trump praising him two years ago. Former New York Congressman Chris Collins—who was pardoned by Trump in 2020 for insider trading charges—is now running in Florida's 19th district. Collins was the first sitting member of Congress to endorse Trump in the 2016 presidential election, calling himself a "true Trump conservative" and claiming to "vote 100% with him." Private university executive Belinda Kaiser mentions in ads that she was selected as one of the people to represent Florida in the Electoral College for Trump.

The candidates waited anxiously

Despite the chorus of praise, Trump has so far endorsed only one open seat. In March, Trump announced his support for Sydney Groutas, a university endowment executive and wife of Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Groutas. She is running for Florida's 16th district, currently held by outgoing Representative Fern Buchanan. Buchanan is one of four Republicans who have either retired outright or are running for other positions. Representative Byron Donaz's decision to run for governor of Florida sparked a ten-way race in the 19th district, including two former members of Congress, a former Illinois senator, a broadcast executive, and a former congressional staffer. There is little time left for Trump to speak before the primaries. Mail-in ballots have been issued, and early voting will begin before August 8th. Trump's potential endorsements have been the focus of ongoing discussion and speculation among Republican advisors and strategists over the past week.

Why has it been so slow to act?

A senior Florida Republican campaign manager, speaking anonymously, said the Iran conflict and the delay in midterm redistricting until late spring "disrupted the timeline." Florida's new congressional map—which could help Republicans win four more seats—was not finalized until May, immediately sparking lawsuits. Another senior Florida Republican pollster and consultant said Trump's endorsement could still influence voters even on the eve of the primaries. Ryan Tyson pointed out that the Florida Republican primaries are dominated by older voters, with about half of Republican primary voters casting their ballots in the final four days. He added that the only limiting factor is how quickly the campaign can spread the word about the endorsement. "That's the most important thing in the primaries," Tyson said. "I think Trump can have an impact in the Florida primaries within 24 hours."

With the primaries just around the corner, Trump's "absence" is the biggest suspense.

With just three weeks to go before the Florida primary on August 18, the very fact that Trump's endorsements have "not yet arrived in large numbers" has become the most dramatic suspense of the election. Mail-in ballots have been sent out, early voting is about to begin, and candidates, advisors, and party members are still waiting for that "final signal." The reasons for Trump's delay—the interference of the Iran conflict, the legal disputes over redistricting, and his unique judgment on the timing of endorsements—may have a greater impact on the election than the endorsements themselves. For Florida Republicans, Trump's absence is not just a matter of waiting, but also a source of pressure. Candidates must prove their "Trump loyalty" without explicit endorsements, and the approachability shown in the advertising campaign has become the sole criterion. With half of the voters casting their ballots in the final four days, every hint and every word from Trump could become a key variable in changing the flow of votes. This competition about "who is the real Trumpist" is far from over.

How does Trump's political capital influence the pricing of the dollar?

The Florida primary on August 18th appears to be a local political contest, but its impact on the US dollar index cannot be ignored. The core logic lies in the fact that Trump's endorsement ability directly reflects the strength of his political capital, thus influencing market pricing of US fiscal policy and geopolitical risks. If all candidates supported by Trump win, the market will interpret this as a signal of a "strong Trump"—meaning a smoother Republican legislative agenda, larger-scale fiscal expansion (the defense budget has already increased to $1.15 trillion due to the Iran conflict), and a more persistent hardline stance on Iran. All three point to higher US Treasury yields and continued demand for the dollar as a safe haven, providing medium-term support for the dollar index. Conversely, if Trump's endorsed candidates unexpectedly lose, the market may reprice expectations of "weakening Trump power"—increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal expansion and potential adjustments to Iran policy could put pressure on the dollar index due to a decline in safe-haven demand. Considering the current high level of the dollar index above 101, the Florida primary results may become a hidden variable that disrupts this balance. (US Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: EasyForex) At 10:14 AM Beijing time on July 27, the US Dollar Index was at 101.14.