With only about 100 days left until the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, the suspense surrounding control of the U.S. Congress continues to intensify. House Republicans left Washington this week for a five-week summer recess, returning to their respective districts to face voters directly. Majority Leader Steve Scully admitted that issues such as the Iran war, the cost of living, and border security "will definitely be brought up." In an election cycle shaped by geopolitical conflicts and economic pressures, the Republican Party faces a severe test of public opinion.

Polls warn: House in jeopardy, Senate still uncertain.

The latest election projections show starkly different fortunes for the two parties in the two houses of Congress. According to data released on July 26 by Decision Desk HQ, a US election forecasting organization, the Democrats have a 60% chance of winning control of the House of Representatives, projecting a majority of 225 seats to 210. Another forecasting model also gives the Democrats a 59% chance of winning, predicting a reversal to 224 seats to 211. In the Senate, the Republicans, with their current 53-47 majority, still hold a slight advantage and have a 60% probability of retaining control. If the prediction comes true, the Senate will remain 50-50, and Vice President Vance's crucial vote will maintain Republican dominance. Analysts point out that the Michigan Senate election will be a key battleground in determining the Senate's fate—if the Republicans win the state, their probability of retaining the Senate will rise to 86%. Trump's persistently low approval ratings are the biggest drag on the Republican Party's election prospects. A recent poll by The Economist and YouGov shows that only 36% of Americans approve of Trump's performance in office; a New York Times poll averages 39% approval and 59% disapproval. A joint poll by The Washington Post and Ipsos further confirms this trend—37% approve of the president's job, while 61% are dissatisfied. Political analyst Chuck Todd bluntly stated, "Nothing predicts midterm election results better than the president's approval rating. If the president's approval rating is below 45%, it means his party is almost certain to lose seats."

Oil prices rebound to $4: Geopolitical conflicts ignite public anxiety about their finances.

Economic issues—especially energy prices—are becoming a central variable in this election. As of July 20, data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) showed that the average price of regular unleaded gasoline in the U.S. reached $4.003 per gallon, breaking this key level again after a month's hiatus. This price was about 13 cents higher than a week earlier and more than 86 cents higher than the same period last year. The surge in oil prices is directly rooted in the continued escalation of the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran. In mid-July, after Trump announced the collapse of the temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran, hostilities between the two sides have escalated. The U.S. military has launched airstrikes against military targets in Iran for several consecutive days, while Iran has continued to retaliate against U.S. military facilities in the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has once again come to a standstill—this vital waterway carrying about one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil has been cut off, directly pushing up the risk premium for international oil prices. Brent crude futures settled at $91.68 per barrel for the week ending July 24, up 4.06% from the previous week; WTI crude futures closed at $89.31 per barrel, a weekly increase of 9.21%. Goldman Sachs released a report predicting that if tensions between the US and Iran cannot be eased in the short term, oil prices could surge past $120 per barrel. The impact of rising oil prices is being transmitted along the supply chain. The average price of diesel in the US has already exceeded $5 per gallon, and on July 26, it further climbed to approximately $5.21, a year-on-year increase of 39%. Diesel is a core fuel for trucks, construction equipment, and agricultural machinery, and its price increase will further push up transportation and production costs across various industries, creating a second round of inflationary pressure.

Cooling inflation faces headwinds from oil prices: Federal Reserve policy faces a dilemma.

Just before oil prices resumed their upward trend, US inflation data released positive signals. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 14 showed that the overall CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month in June, the largest monthly drop since April 2020; the year-on-year increase fell to 3.5%, lower than May's 4.2%. Core CPI fell to 2.6% year-on-year. The plunge in energy prices was the core driver of the lower prices in June—the energy sub-index fell 5.7% month-on-month, and gasoline prices fell 9.7% in a single month. However, the rapid rebound in oil prices since July is casting a shadow over the inflation outlook. Industry experts point out that due to the uncertainty surrounding the future developments of the US-Iran situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, gasoline and diesel prices across the US may remain high in the short term. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting on July 28-29 will directly address this contradiction—the softer inflation data in June clashes with the renewed rise in oil prices, which could reignite price pressures. Market expectations for a July rate hike have cooled significantly, with federal funds futures pricing in a rate hike that once reached as high as 11 basis points falling to less than 3 basis points. Looking at a longer timeframe, the cumulative effect of inflation is even more striking: the CPI is currently up approximately 28.5% from its 2020 baseline. Regardless of whether the rate of increase slows, Americans are spending nearly a third more on everyday goods and services than they did six years ago. This reality is reshaping voter preferences—polls show that on issues such as inflation, healthcare, and even immigration, traditionally Republican-dominated topics, voters are now more inclined to trust the Democrats.

War Bill: $37.5 billion and $67 billion in Additional Requests

The financial costs of the military action against Iran are escalating at an alarming rate. U.S. Defense Secretary Hergsays stated at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing on July 21 that the Pentagon's latest estimates show the war against Iran has already cost $37.5 billion. This figure continues to climb from approximately $25 billion initially reported at the end of April, and then to $29 billion updated in May—an increase of about $8.5 billion in just two months. Hergsays also urged Congress to approve a $67 billion supplemental defense funding request, calling it "urgent funding" and "urgent and necessary." However, the hearing was highly charged—several Democratic senators repeatedly interrupted him and expressed strong skepticism. Patty Murray, the highest-ranking Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, warned that this would be "just another war without end." New Hampshire Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen questioned, "Why should the American people bear the cost of a war they don't support?"

Diverging strategies between the two parties: Who is on the offensive and who is on the defensive?

Facing election pressure, the two parties are adopting drastically different strategies. House Speaker Mike Johnson successfully pushed three bills through the House this week—a bill extending government funding until December 4th, a $95 billion partisan budget blueprint, and an annual defense policy bill. Representative Mike Flood stated, "If you told me on Sunday that we could get all of this done with little drama, I simply wouldn't believe you." However, these bills are expected to face multiple hurdles once they reach the Senate. Representative Marin Stuttman admitted that Senate Republicans have only a "50/50" chance of passing a budget resolution in the coming weeks. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is facing continued pressure from Trump. Trump has repeatedly urged Thune to push the Save America Act through the Senate, but Thune has repeatedly stated that he doesn't have enough votes. Other Senate Republicans have defended Thune, acknowledging an unwinnable impasse between the president and his 53-seat majority. Meanwhile, Thune is considering introducing legislation imposing sanctions on Russia and Iran in the Senate next week and pushing for an agreement to expedite the process. On the Democratic side, House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries plans to launch a new "affordability" campaign on Sunday, commemorating 100 days until the midterm elections. Jeffries stated bluntly, "Donald Trump and the Republicans have let down the American people, which is why they are clearly running away and are on the verge of losing control of the House." However, the Democratic Party also faces the risk of division—several incumbent Democratic members, including Debbie Wasserman-Schultz of Florida and Ed Case of Hawaii, are facing primary challenges. Representative Don Byr expressed concern, saying, "I just hate the idea of replacing people we know can easily win with people who might lose in November."

Structural Game Theory: Governing Districts and Financial Advantage

Despite unfavorable poll numbers for the Republicans, two structural battles are subtly shifting the landscape. First, redrawing of electoral districts is expected to give Republicans a net advantage of 5 to 12 seats. George Washington University political science professor Binder analyzes that currently, less than one-twentieth of the House districts are truly in a 50-50 tie, significantly limiting the space for Democratic gains. Second, Republicans hold an absolute advantage in campaign finances, with their caucuses and allied organizations possessing tens of millions of dollars more in campaign funds than Democrats. Whether these two structural advantages can offset the unfavorable impact of the external political environment on the Republicans will be revealed in the next 100 days. The Decision-Making Headquarters points out that the current overall electoral situation is far from the level of advantage seen during the Democratic "blue wave" of 2018. The results of several key swing state elections in the coming months will still determine the ultimate fate of control of the US Congress.

Editor's Summary

The 2026 US midterm elections are entering their final 100 days. The race for control of the House of Representatives shows the Democrats leading, with the decision-making headquarters giving a 60% chance of a reversal, predicting the Democrats will regain a majority with 225 seats to 210. In the Senate, the Republicans maintain a 50-50 tie with a 60% probability. Trump's approval rating continues to hover at a low level of 36% to 39%, becoming the biggest drag on the Republican Party's election prospects. Economic issues dominate voter concerns. The average price of gasoline across the US has returned to the $4 per gallon mark after a month, more than 86 cents higher than the same period last year; the average price of diesel has exceeded $5.21, a year-on-year surge of 39%. Brent crude oil settled at $91.68 per barrel in the week ending July 24, and Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could break through $120 if the situation continues to deteriorate. The June CPI fell to 3.5% year-on-year, a signal of cooling inflation, which is being offset by the rebound in oil prices since July, leaving the Federal Reserve facing a dilemma at its July policy meeting. The financial costs of war continue to balloon—military action against Iran has already cost $37.5 billion, an increase of $8.5 billion from two months ago, while the Department of Defense has requested an additional $67 billion in funding. The two parties' strategies are clearly diverging: Republicans are attempting to solidify their base with legislative gains, but face a double whammy of Senate obstacles and presidential pressure; Democrats are focusing their offensive on the cost of living issue, but are bogged down in internal primaries. Redistricting gives Republicans a structural advantage of 5 to 12 seats, coupled with a lead of tens of millions of dollars in campaign funds—factors that could play a crucial role in the closely contested House race.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Can the Democrats really win back the House? How reliable are the polls? The latest forecast from the Decision Hall Headquarters (DDHQ) shows a 60% probability of the Democrats winning the House, projecting a 225-210 majority. However, analysts point out that the overall election situation is far from the level of advantage seen during the 2018 "blue wave." Redistricting is expected to give Republicans a net advantage of 5 to 12 seats, and Republicans have a lead of tens of millions of dollars in campaign funds. These structural factors may offset the political headwinds reflected in the polls, and the final outcome of House control remains highly uncertain. Q: Why have gasoline prices suddenly returned to $4? What does this mean for ordinary families? The direct driver is the continued escalation of the US-Iran military conflict. After the temporary ceasefire agreement broke down in mid-July, the US military launched continuous airstrikes against targets in Iran, bringing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill once again. This strait handles about one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil. For ordinary families, the average gasoline price across the US is more than 86 cents higher than the same period last year, and diesel prices have surged 39% year-on-year, further pushing up transportation and production costs. The CPI has risen by approximately 28.5% year-on-year since 2020, continuously eroding the purchasing power of the public. Q: How much has the war against Iran actually cost? Will it continue to increase? The Pentagon's latest estimate on July 21 shows that the war against Iran has cost $37.5 billion. This figure has been steadily climbing from approximately $25 billion at the end of April to $29 billion in May, an increase of $8.5 billion in just two months. Defense Secretary Hergsays has requested $67 billion in additional funding from Congress. When asked about the final cost, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kane stated, "I cannot answer what the final cost will be, because the enemy also has a vote." Q: Isn't inflation cooling down? Why is the economy still considered a core election issue? The June CPI fell to 3.5% year-on-year, and the core CPI dropped to 2.6%, indeed signaling a cooling of inflation. However, the rapid rebound in oil prices since July is reigniting price pressures. More importantly, there is a cumulative effect—the CPI has risen by approximately 28.5% year-on-year since the 2020 baseline. Regardless of whether the rate of increase has slowed, people are spending nearly a third more on everyday goods and services than they did six years ago. Polls show that voters are now more inclined to trust the Democrats on the issue of inflation. Q: How much impact will Trump's low approval rating have on the Republican Party's election prospects? The impact is extremely significant. A survey by The Economist and YouGov shows that only 36% of Americans approve of Trump's performance in office; a poll by The Washington Post and Ipsos shows 37% approve and 61% disapprove. Political analyst Todd points out: "Nothing predicts the midterm election results better than the president's approval rating. If the president's approval rating is below 45%, his party will almost certainly lose seats in the midterm elections." Historical patterns show that the ruling party usually faces seat losses in midterm elections, and Trump's low approval rating is amplifying this effect. Q: What impact will the US midterm elections have on the dollar index? Historical patterns show that the dollar is usually weaker in midterm election years, which is more pronounced when the Republicans control the White House. If the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives, resulting in a "separation of powers," fiscal expansion will be constrained, and the sustainability of the dollar's credit recovery will be questionable. TD Securities also pointed out that the election cycle has reduced the possibility of further escalation of geopolitical risks, limiting the potential for a significant strengthening of the US dollar. Key variables: If the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28-29 releases hawkish signals, or if the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, the US dollar may further test the 102 level; conversely, if geopolitical risks ease, the market will refocus on the pressure of a slowing US economy. At 10:27 Beijing time, the US dollar index is currently at 101.15.