The US dollar index (DXY) remained volatile during Asian trading on Wednesday, hovering below 101.50, but maintained an overall bullish structure. The dollar index had previously hit a more than one-month high, with markets remaining cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, while escalating geopolitical risks continued to provide safe-haven support for the dollar. Recent tensions in the Middle East have once again become a significant factor driving the US dollar's performance. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a surprise attack on US targets in the Middle East, firing multiple ballistic missiles. Simultaneously, the US indicated it might take more aggressive measures if diplomatic efforts fail to resolve the issues quickly. The market believes these events increase the likelihood of further escalation in the region and prompt investors to re-priced in geopolitical risk premiums. Given the dollar's traditional safe-haven status, deteriorating risk sentiment typically drives capital inflows into dollar assets. Currently, global investors are highly focused on energy supply security and inflationary pressures, providing some support for the dollar. Escalating geopolitical risks are strengthening the dollar's short-term defensive attributes , limiting a significant pullback in the dollar index. Meanwhile, the recent rapid rebound in oil prices has exacerbated market concerns about rising inflation. Rising energy prices could increase future inflationary pressures and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. The market is reassessing the US interest rate outlook, with some investors believing that if inflationary pressures are reinvigorated by rising energy prices, the Fed may need to maintain restrictive policies for a longer period. Investors are currently highly focused on the outcome of the Fed's policy meeting and are hoping to glean clues about the future path of interest rates from the policy statement. Market opinions remain largely divided on short-term policy adjustments, but overall expectations suggest that US interest rates may remain high for an extended period. Analysts point out that the market remains highly cautious regarding the Federal Reserve meeting. While crude oil prices previously corrected due to a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, policy uncertainties have not been significantly eliminated. Currently, the market anticipates a continued probability of the Fed adjusting interest rates in the near future and remains highly focused on policy changes at future meetings. However, further gains in the US dollar index face certain limitations. As the market has already priced in some positive factors, investors are unwilling to significantly increase their long dollar positions before the Fed's policy decision. Furthermore, if the Fed releases a dovish signal, the dollar may be suppressed, and risk assets and non-US currencies may experience a short-term rebound. The future trend of the US dollar index will mainly depend on three factors: the Fed's policy stance, changes in US inflation expectations, and the development of global risk events. If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance while Middle East risks continue to escalate, the dollar index may continue its upward trend; if policy signals lean towards easing, the dollar may experience a temporary correction. Looking at the daily chart of the US dollar index, the DXY is currently maintaining a high-level consolidation, trading around 101.50, and remains in a strong area after the recent rebound. The daily chart shows the bullish trend remains intact, but a short-term consolidation phase has begun. Resistance is seen in the 101.80-102.20 area; a break above this area could lead to a further test of the 103.00 level. Support is seen at 100.80, 100.20, and 99.50; a break below 100.80 could weaken the current uptrend. Current market momentum is bullish, but further confirmation from the Federal Reserve's policy signals is needed. The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows a high-level consolidation around 101.50, with short-term moving averages maintaining an upward slope, indicating some buying support. The MACD indicator shows a slowdown in upward momentum, while the RSI is in the strong zone but not significantly overbought, suggesting that bulls still hold the advantage but with reduced willingness to chase higher prices. A break above 101.80 could open up further upside potential, challenging the 102.20 area; a break below 100.80 could lead to a short-term correction and a test of support around 100.20. Short-term trends will be closely watched in light of the Federal Reserve's decision and changes in risk sentiment. Editor's Summary: The US dollar index is currently in a phase of intertwined risk aversion, interest rate expectations, and policy uncertainty. Escalating tensions in the Middle East are driving capital flows to the dollar, while rising oil prices are reinforcing inflation concerns, leading the market to continue betting on persistently high US interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve policy meeting will be a key turning point in the short term. If the Fed releases a hawkish signal, the dollar index may rise further; if the policy stance is dovish, the dollar's recent gains may be limited. Overall, the dollar index remains relatively strong in the short term, but its upside potential depends on subsequent policy guidance from the Fed. Investors should pay close attention to whether the 101.80 level is breached, and the impact of global risk factors on capital flows.