Global markets are currently holding their breath awaiting the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision. Gold price fluctuations will be entirely anchored to the Fed's policy rhetoric and the number of dissenting votes at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Ahead of the FOMC meeting results, market traders are adjusting their positions and locking in profits, causing the dollar index to fall. Futures market data shows that the probability of a rate hike at the Fed meeting on July 28-29 is only one-third. Given the high risk of a policy surprise at this meeting, speculators are reducing their long dollar positions. Previously, net long dollar positions reached a new high since 2015, indicating significant market risk aversion and portfolio adjustments. Multiple economic data points and official statements support the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates. On the employment front, the US job market saw strong growth in the spring, but June's employment data showed a clear cooling; on the inflation front, US inflation continues to slow. Meanwhile, several FOMC members have publicly stated that current monetary policy is appropriate for the current economic situation. Former Fed official Kevin Warsh also did not signal any monetary tightening policy during his congressional hearings. However, some in the market still support a rate hike. Warsh has repeatedly emphasized that initiating a tightening cycle means the Fed will use all its policy tools to push inflation back to the 2% target range. Some believe that if the Fed abandons its 25-basis-point rate hike in July, it may be forced to raise rates by 50 basis points in September to strengthen its efforts to control inflation. In addition, the new Fed chairman may use this opportunity to release policy signals, demonstrating his personal decision-making independence and the Fed's independence from White House interference. This Fed decision is crucial for the gold market's performance. Gold prices are currently under pressure, fluctuating narrowly around the $4,000 per ounce mark, primarily due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice in 2026. Based on this expectation, even if the Fed maintains its current interest rate stance, its hawkish policy rhetoric could still exert strong downward pressure on gold prices. TD Securities, however, offers a contrasting prediction: if the Fed maintains its current monetary policy and there are no more than two dissenting votes, the dollar could weaken significantly, benefiting gold prices. Analysts predict that Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammark and Dallas Fed President Lori Logan may vote in favor of a rate hike. If the final vote matches this expectation, gold prices could potentially challenge the $4,150 per ounce mark and rise further. Two recent market events have not triggered significant gold price fluctuations: first, Iran's attack on a US military base in Jordan boosted international oil prices; second, Hong Kong's gold bar imports climbed to their highest level since the end of 2014, indirectly reflecting strong physical gold demand in mainland China. However, historical trends show that as gold funds flow from Western ETFs to Asian physical consumer markets, gold prices are likely to trend downwards. This historical pattern also introduces uncertainty into the subsequent trend of gold prices in this round.