On Wednesday (July 29), international oil prices suddenly strengthened during the European and American trading sessions, with both WTI and Brent crude oil rising by more than 6%. Key points: Trump publicly signaled a strong stance against Iran, and geopolitical risk premiums have once again dominated international oil prices. In a news interview, US President Trump clearly stated that the US would retaliate strongly against Iran's planned attack on US forces in the Middle East. This is a direct response to Iran's attack on US military bases in Jordan this morning, and it is also what the market was worried about. The US Central Command reported that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan, and all incoming missiles were successfully intercepted by the US. Previously, the Middle East conflict had briefly cooled down, and the market was betting on a ceasefire, leading to a weakening of oil prices; the resurgence of this conflict has directly reversed market expectations, and risk aversion has rapidly increased. The focus now is on the intensity of US military operations tonight.

Attack Details: Missiles targeted US military base in Jordan, attack failed.

Following the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's missile attack, Trump stated in an interview that Iran "will be struck," sending a clear signal that the US would launch a strong counterattack. According to Axios News, the Iranian attack targeted US military bases in Jordan, and US Central Command confirmed that all incoming missiles were successfully intercepted. This attempted attack shattered the previous brief window of de-escalation. Earlier this week, the market anticipated a de-escalation, and the geopolitical premium for crude oil continued to decline, putting downward pressure on prices.

The conflict continues to escalate: US-Saudi coalition forces have already launched retaliatory operations.

This round of tensions is not sudden. The US Central Command disclosed that on Tuesday, the US, in conjunction with Saudi forces, launched airstrikes on multiple armed logistics outposts and weapons storage sites in eastern Iraq, in response to more than 30 drone attacks launched by pro-Iranian insurgents in the past three days. The escalating friction between various parties is setting the stage for a new round of market movements.

Trading Perspective: Geopolitically Driven Markets Require Caution Against a Surge and Pullback

For crude oil traders, this round of price movements is a typical risk premium correction catalyzed by news. Short-term oil price movements are highly dependent on subsequent actions by the US and Iran. Although the missile attack caused no casualties and did not directly affect crude oil production or shipping routes, the market is already pricing in the potential risks of the conflict escalating and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Trading Risk Warning: Geopolitical price movements are highly volatile, and their sustainability is highly uncertain. If the two sides do not escalate further, bullish sentiment could quickly dissipate, and oil prices may rise and then fall back. Do not blindly chase the highs. In the short term, continue to monitor subsequent US military actions and Iran's response. (WTI crude oil futures daily chart, source: EasyTrade) At 21:39 Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures were trading at $84.31 per barrel.