On Wednesday (July 29), spot gold prices edged lower, while spot silver rose slightly. Amidst anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference, traders remained cautious and adopted conservative positioning. Spot gold traded around $4014.91 per ounce, down 0.34% on the day; spot silver was quoted around $57.088, up slightly by 0.01%. Gold traded in a range between $4009.60 and $4048.80 in early trading. Gold held above the $4000 level but failed to break through the key breakout level of $4066 in the short-term technical pattern. Silver traded between $56.75 and $58.36 in early trading, holding above the trend support line at $56.88 but remaining under pressure below the resistance level of $58.67. The market was generally defensive ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision this afternoon. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision will be announced at 2:00 PM ET, followed by a press conference by Warsh at 2:30 PM ET. The market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. However, investors did not simply view this meeting as a definitive "hold-off": interest rate futures pricing indicates there is still about a one-third probability of a rate hike, and the market has largely priced in a September rate hike. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was around 4.62%, and the dollar index rose to 101.64. Traders anticipate that the Federal Reserve's statement and the Chairman's speech will continue to focus on inflation risks. Multiple factors suggest that gold has support at $4,000, but rising real interest rates and a strong dollar limit its upside potential. The current shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz can be summarized as follows: the channel remains open, but it continues to face pressure from military conflict, resulting in a highly tense situation. Jordan and the US jointly intercepted a new round of Iranian missile attacks, ending the brief easing of tensions between the US and Iran; crude oil prices surged by over 4%, with trading funds repricing the geopolitical risks of this vital shipping route. Brent crude was around $85.79, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $83.04. Normally, about 20% of global seaborne crude oil passes through this waterway. Geopolitical situations have a two-way impact on gold: geopolitical crises generate safe-haven demand, which is beneficial for gold; however, higher oil prices will push up inflation expectations, supporting higher US Treasury yields, thus suppressing the upside potential of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. The overall market environment is characterized by: stronger crude oil, divergent stock markets, a stronger dollar, and pressure on US Treasuries, all awaiting guidance from the Federal Reserve's decision. Traders are focusing on the following events: the Fed's policy statement, Warsh's comments on inflation and employment risks, Thursday's US GDP data, Friday's PCE inflation data, and whether there will be new disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. If gold continues to hold above $4066, the short-term technical outlook will improve; if it falls below $4011, the $3959 support level will become a focal point again. Other major overseas markets: New York WTI crude oil rose sharply to $83.04 per barrel; Brent crude oil was around $85.79. The US dollar index strengthened, trading around 101.64; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remained around 4.62%. Technical Analysis (Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678) Spot gold is currently in a short-term bearish technical advantage. The price is currently trading below the 50-period moving average (approximately $4058) and the 100-period moving average (approximately $4071), continuing to consolidate within a symmetrical triangle pattern ahead of the Fed's decision. The primary upside target for the bulls is to regain control of $4066; a successful break above this level would target $4114, with a further target of $4166. The short-term downside target for the bears is a break below $4011; a continued break below this level would target support at $3959, followed by a test of $3913. The first resistance level is $4066, followed by $4114; the first support level is $4011, followed by $3959. Spot silver is also in a short-term bearish technical advantage. Silver prices are below the 50-period moving average ($58.11) and the 100-period moving average ($58.78), but have held above the uptrend support level of $56.88. The primary upside target for silver bulls is a break above $58.67; a sustained hold above this level would target $59.00, with a further push towards $60.03. The downside target for bears is a decisive break below $56.88; subsequent support levels are $56.11 and $54.84. The first resistance level is $58.67, followed by $59.00; the primary support level is $56.88, followed by $56.11.