The USD/CAD pair remained range-bound during Thursday's Asian trading session, trading near 1.4050. While not far from its previous one-week low, the market lacked a clear directional move. Currently, both the US dollar and the Canadian dollar are influenced by different factors, leaving the pair in a short-term equilibrium. On the US dollar front, hawkish signals following the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting continued to provide support. The Fed decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. However, significant internal disagreements emerged, with three Fed officials supporting a 25 basis point rate hike, indicating that some policymakers remain concerned about persistently high inflationary pressures. The market is currently reassessing the Fed's future policy path. As energy price volatility could fuel inflation expectations, investors have increased their likelihood of another Fed rate hike before the end of the year. Market data shows that traders have largely priced in at least one rate hike this year, providing some support for the dollar and limiting the downside for USD/CAD. Furthermore, changes in global risk sentiment have also boosted demand for the dollar as a safe haven. Recent international tensions have led to renewed market focus on energy supply security, prompting investors to increase their dollar holdings, allowing the dollar to recover some of the losses following the Fed's decision. However, the Canadian dollar also received some support, primarily from rising oil prices. The Canadian economy is highly dependent on energy exports, and rising oil prices typically improve the attractiveness of Canadian dollar assets. WTI crude oil has recently remained around $83, with market concerns about energy supply risks keeping prices high and thus limiting further gains for the USD/CAD exchange rate. In the energy market, investors continue to focus on developments in the Middle East and the security of key shipping routes. If crude oil supply is significantly affected, international oil prices could rise further, supporting the Canadian dollar through commodity exports. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting important US economic data. The preliminary US Q2 GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be crucial indicators of the Federal Reserve's policy direction. If US GDP is strong and PCE inflation remains high, the market may further increase expectations that the Fed will maintain its tightening policy or even raise interest rates again, potentially boosting the US dollar. Conversely, if economic growth slows and inflation continues to decline, the market may lower its expectations for rate hikes, putting pressure on the US dollar. Currently, the USD/CAD exchange rate is caught in a tug-of-war between two forces: the US dollar is supported by interest rate expectations and safe-haven demand, while the Canadian dollar is driven by rising oil prices. Future direction will depend on US economic data and changes in risks in the oil market. From a daily chart perspective, USD/CAD has recently retreated after a surge, currently trading around 1.4050, in a high-level consolidation phase. Resistance is seen around 1.4100; a break above this level could lead to a further test of the 1.4150 resistance. On the downside, 1.3950 is a key short-term support level; a break below this could open up further downside potential towards the 1.3850 area. Current market momentum is biased towards consolidation, with a strong US dollar and oil price support significantly offsetting the Canadian dollar's movement. On the 4-hour chart, USD/CAD exhibits a short-term consolidation structure, searching for a new direction after a pullback. Technical indicators suggest some easing of short-term bearish pressure, but upward momentum still needs confirmation through a break of key resistance levels. A break above 1.4100 could extend the rebound; a break below 1.3950 could lead to a further test of the 1.3900 area. In the short term, close attention should be paid to the impact of US GDP, PCE data, and changes in oil prices on the exchange rate. The USD/CAD pair is currently in a state of equilibrium between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar. The divergence in Federal Reserve hawkish stances and expectations of a year-end rate hike are supporting the US dollar, while rising oil prices and energy supply risks are strengthening the Canadian dollar. Going forward, the market's core focus will be on US economic data, Fed policy expectations, and changes in the international oil market. If US inflationary pressures persist and the Fed maintains a tight policy, the USD/CAD pair may strengthen again; however, if oil prices continue to rise due to supply risks, the Canadian dollar's rebound may be limited. Overall, the USD/CAD pair is expected to remain range-bound in the short term. Investors should pay attention to a breakout from the 1.3950-1.4100 range and be wary of rapid fluctuations caused by sudden macroeconomic data and energy market events.