Next week (August 3-7) will be a super data week for global markets, with a flurry of important data releases including domestic and international manufacturing PMIs, US trade and order data, crude oil inventories, and a series of key US employment figures, coupled with public speeches from several FOMC voting members. These core data points will directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, the strength of the US dollar, and commodity volatility, breaking the quiet summer market pattern. Gold, crude oil, forex, and equity markets will all receive crucial directional guidance. Investors need to prepare their positions in advance to seize market opportunities and mitigate volatility risks. Key Data at a Glance: Monday (August 3rd): China's July SPGI Manufacturing PMI, final SPGI Manufacturing PMI figures for the UK, France, and Germany, and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Approximately 900 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, but only 300 billion yuan of new reverse repos have been conducted so far. Pay attention to the latest developments from the central bank on Monday. (Focus on the real economy in the US, Europe, and China) Tuesday (August 4th): US June trade balance, US June durable goods orders, SpaceX announces its Q2 2026 results. (Verifying durable goods orders and business sentiment) Wednesday (August 5th): API and EIA crude oil inventories, US July ADP employment change, and Australian June exports (igniting energy speculation and ADP data). Thursday (August 6th): US July Challenger job cuts, and US early August initial and continuing jobless claims. (Revised Non-Farm Payroll Expectations and Initial Jobless Claims Resilience) Friday (August 7th): US July non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, wage growth, and labor force participation rate. (Setting the Tone for Fed Policy and Overall Asset Trends) 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musaleem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy. 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks.

The release of global manufacturing PMIs sets the tone for economic conditions both domestically and internationally.

On Monday (August 3), a batch of global manufacturing data will be released, becoming the first important observation window for the market next week. China will release its July SPGI Manufacturing PMI, while the UK, France, and Germany will simultaneously release their final July SPGI Manufacturing PMI figures. The US will release its ISM Manufacturing PMI in the evening. As core leading indicators of the domestic real economy, industrial production, and domestic demand recovery, these data directly impact domestic risk asset sentiment. Meanwhile, approximately 900 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature, but only 300 billion yuan of new reverse repos have been conducted so far. Monday's focus should be on the latest developments from the central bank.

A series of US fundamental data releases continue to validate the business climate.

On Tuesday (August 4th), the US will release several key fundamental data points, comprehensively verifying the resilience of its economy. The market will see the release of the US June trade balance data, reflecting the US import and export pattern and the external economic supply and demand structure, impacting the dollar's valuation. Following this, the US June durable goods orders data will be released, a key indicator of corporate investment and industrial expansion intentions, directly reflecting the state of US manufacturing capital expenditure. In addition, SpaceX will release its Q2 2026 results, potentially driving sentiment fluctuations in the aerospace and high-end manufacturing sub-sectors, providing a short-term catalyst for thematic markets.

Crude oil inventory data and overseas economic data releases exacerbate volatility in the energy market.

On Wednesday (August 5th), detailed energy and employment data were released simultaneously. In the evening, the US released API and EIA crude oil inventory data. Unexpected increases or decreases in inventories will directly influence the short-term price fluctuations of crude oil, continuing the current geopolitical and supply-demand dynamics in the energy sector. Simultaneously, the market will see the release of the US July ADP employment change data, a leading indicator for non-farm payrolls, providing early signals about the state of the US job market and preparing for the upcoming crucial non-farm payroll data. In addition, Australia released its June export data, which, given Australia's export-oriented economy, can indirectly reflect the overall strength of global external demand and help in judging global macroeconomic trends.

US preliminary employment data is coming, and the labor market continues to be tested.

Thursday (August 6) will see a flurry of pre-farm payroll data releases in the US, further refining the picture of the labor market. The US will release the Challenger job cuts figures for July, directly reflecting companies' willingness to lay off employees and marginal changes in the job market, indicating business pressures and labor demand. Simultaneously, the initial and continuing jobless claims for early August will be released. As high-frequency employment indicators, these figures continuously verify the resilience of the US job market, preemptively correcting market expectations for non-farm payroll data and causing short-term volatility in the US dollar and gold.

The super non-farm payrolls report is the grand finale, and the central bank's speech concludes the week's market activity.

Friday (August 7th) will see the culmination of this week's major market event: the release of the complete US July employment data. The market will focus on four core indicators: non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, wage growth, and labor force participation rate. These indicators will comprehensively define the logic behind US employment and inflation, directly influencing expectations for subsequent Federal Reserve policy and determining the short-term direction of the entire asset class, including the US dollar, gold, US stocks, and crude oil. Following the data release, several FOMC voting members will speak. St. Louis Fed President Musaleem, a 2028 FOMC voting member, will speak on the US economy and monetary policy, while Richmond Fed President Barkin, a 2027 FOMC voting member, will also speak. These statements from these two officials will further strengthen or revise market policy expectations, setting the tone for the week's closing market action. The "expectation gap" in the data is far more important than the "absolute value."

Precautions:

Many investors focus solely on whether the non-farm payrolls report is "bullish" or "bearish," neglecting the fact that the market has already priced in that amount. For example, if the market expects 150,000 new non-farm payrolls, and the actual figure is 180,000, superficially it looks like employment is strong (bearish for gold/bullish for the dollar). However, if major Wall Street banks privately predicted 220,000 beforehand, then 180,000 would be interpreted as "below expectations," triggering a surge in gold prices. Always keep a close eye on the market consensus forecast from Bloomberg or Reuters. The secondary impact of "wage growth (average hourly earnings)" on inflation often leads investors to focus entirely on "new non-farm payrolls" and the "unemployment rate," ignoring wage inflation. In the current deep-water phase of global anti-inflation, the Federal Reserve is most wary of a "wage-price spiral." If non-farm payrolls are disappointing, but average hourly earnings show stronger-than-expected month-on-month/year-on-year growth, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates significantly, leading to a short-term drop in the dollar followed by a rapid and violent rebound, and gold experiencing a classic "bull trap followed by a sharp drop" trap.

Risk warning: Data and policy variables require close monitoring.

Recession Trading and Risk Aversion: A collective weakening of global manufacturing PMIs could easily trigger market concerns about a "hard landing," suppressing risk assets and benefiting safe-haven assets like gold. Non-Farm Payroll Expectation Reversal: Unexpectedly large fluctuations in employment data could instantly rewrite the pricing of the Fed's rate cut pace, triggering a sharp drop or short squeeze in the dollar and precious metals. Crude Oil Inventory Anomalies: During a period of fragile energy fundamentals, significant inventory anomalies will disrupt the current supply-demand balance, exacerbating the rollercoaster ride in oil prices. Central Bank Divergence Disruptions: Speeches by multiple FOMC voting members that signal hawkish or dovish divergence could lead to fluctuating market expectations and rapid asset price shifts. Summer Liquidity Trap: Currently, we are in the traditional summer holiday window in the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in thin overall market liquidity. Marginal news (such as geopolitical emergencies) is easily amplified, triggering irrational volatility.