On Tuesday (August 4), spot gold edged higher during the early U.S. trading session, while spot silver surged. Traders weighed their options among a rebounding dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, positive U.S. economic data, and easing inflation risks in the Middle East. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading around $4,084.59 per ounce, up 0.72%; spot silver was at $59.777, up 2.77% on the day. Following the Federal Reserve meeting, the market remained highly sensitive to interest rates. On July 29, the Fed voted 9-3 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference did not provide a clear path for rate cuts, reducing forward guidance for traders. The market now treats every economic data point as a crucial reference for judging interest rate pricing in September and December. Subsequent data released for June showed that overall PCE fell 0.1% month-over-month but rose 3.7% year-over-year; core PCE rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. The July ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 55.6, the highest reading since 2022, further confirming that US economic growth has not weakened and that the Fed still reserves the possibility of further rate hikes. Alex Kupšikovich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, stated that strong manufacturing data, coupled with renewed interest in the artificial intelligence sector, led to a return of funds to US risk assets, providing support for the dollar. The S&P 500 is nearing a record high, and the combined market capitalization of the "Big Seven" tech giants has increased by a record amount in three days, indicating a return to the "US economy standing out" trading logic. However, he also pointed out that this has a mixed impact on gold: a stronger dollar and rising yields will limit the upside potential of gold prices; while the uncertainty brought about by the Fed's new policy direction provides support for gold to hold the key psychological level of around $4,000. Kupsiekivic stated that the market is still interpreting Warsh's policy reform ideas. The Fed Chairman hopes to tighten financial conditions and curb inflation by using higher US Treasury yields. Even if the Fed does not directly raise interest rates, investors will demand a higher risk premium for US Treasuries, pushing yields higher. This policy inaction may marginally weaken the dollar, but rising yields will be bearish for gold—gold itself does not generate interest, and higher yields will increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. New York Fed President John Williams also stated that current policy is only reasonable if inflation meets expectations; if the inflation trend changes, the Fed may still adjust its policy again, a view also mentioned by analysts. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not completely eased, but immediate inflationary risks have cooled. Iran stated that it has not engaged in negotiations with the United States, while claiming that its talks with Oman on resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have made progress. If shipping through the strait continues to resume, it will significantly reduce the risk of another surge in oil prices and weaken the probability of energy inflation forcing the Federal Reserve to further tighten monetary policy. Brent crude is trading around $84.82 per barrel, and New York WTI crude is around $80.78. The impact of falling oil prices on gold is two-sided: lower oil prices reduce inflation and interest rate hike expectations, but the easing of geopolitical risks also weakens gold's safe-haven premium. Asian markets are also providing support for gold prices. Kupsikovich stated that inflows into Chinese gold ETFs have continued for the 14th consecutive trading day, with institutional investors continuing to increase their gold holdings as prices approach $4,000 per ounce. Goldman Sachs believes that central bank gold purchases can offset the negative impact of easing geopolitical tensions and rumors of a Fed rate hike; Citigroup predicts that international gold prices will fluctuate at current levels or experience a slight pullback, before retesting $4,500 in the fourth quarter. Traders are closely watching: the Job Openings Report (JOLTS) released at 10:00 AM ET today; the ADP employment data at 8:15 AM Wednesday; and the July non-farm payroll report at 8:30 AM Friday. The next key inflation watch window is the July CPI data on August 12. If the employment data remains strong, the market will raise expectations for a September rate hike, suppressing gold price increases; if the employment data cools significantly, market focus will shift back to a weaker dollar and declining real yields. Other major external markets: New York WTI crude oil rose to $80.78 per barrel; Brent crude oil was around $84.82. The dollar index ended its previous weakness and rebounded; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded around 4.7%. Technical Analysis (Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678) Gold's next upside target: to push the price above the $4073.40-$4100.00 resistance zone; a successful break above this level would target $4138.00, followed by $4200.00. The short-term downside target: a break below $4042.30; further downside targets are $4000.00, then $3979.00. First resistance level: $4073.40, followed by $4100.00. First support level: $4042.30, followed by $4000.00. Silver's next upside target: to push the price above the $59.39-$60.83 range; a break above this range would target $65.53, then $65.98. Downside targets for silver: A break below $57.88; further downside targets are $56.19, followed by $55.00. First resistance level: $59.39, then $60.83. First support level: $57.88, then $56.19.