On Thursday (August 6, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,250 per ounce. Gold prices rose more than 4% on Wednesday, reaching a near two-month high of $4,267.55 per ounce, boosted by declining US Treasury yields and market optimism regarding progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Reduced bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike also contributed to the rise in gold prices. US crude oil was trading around $75 per barrel. Although it was reported that Iran and Afghanistan had finalized a draft agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, pending approval by Iran's Supreme Leader, the market remained cautiously optimistic.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49% to a record closing high of 54,349.06 points, boosted by progress in Middle East peace talks and strong earnings from companies like Amgen and Disney. However, the S&P 500 dipped 0.17% to 7,723.52 points, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.83% to 26,363.44 points, ending a five-day winning streak, dragged down by sharp declines after earnings reports from SpaceX and AMD. The market held cautious optimism regarding the proposed Strait of Hormuz control agreement between Iran and Oman, which, if reached, could alleviate oil price and inflationary pressures and lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. However, investors remained cautious ahead of substantial progress. In terms of individual stocks, SpaceX's first earnings report since its IPO showed revenue nearly doubling and losses narrowing, but market concerns about the sustainability of AI-related capital expenditures caused its stock price to plummet 13.6%, and the IPO lock-up period is about to expire. AMD, despite providing optimistic revenue guidance, saw its stock price fall 7% as investors demanded stronger growth evidence. Amgen and Eli Lilly rose 4.6% and 4.9% respectively due to upward revisions in earnings or expectations, leading the healthcare sector's gains, while Disney's 3.6% increase also supported the Dow Jones. On the economic data front, the ADP report showed that private sector employment growth slowed to 44,000 in July, and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 54.1 but was below expectations, indicating that the overall labor market remains stable. Meanwhile, the ongoing Iraq War keeps inflation and monetary policy in focus. Federal Reserve Governor Cook hinted at supporting interest rate hikes if inflation is too high, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that a slow pace of rate hikes should begin, with market expectations for a September rate hike falling to 54.9%.

Gold Market

Gold prices rose to a near seven-week high on Wednesday, marking their biggest one-day gain since February. Spot gold closed up 4.16% at $4,246.79 an ounce, having touched $4,267.55 earlier in the session, its highest level since June 18 and breaking through the 50-day moving average. This was mainly driven by declining U.S. Treasury yields and market optimism regarding progress in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Independent precious metals trader Tai Wong pointed out that as the likelihood of interest rate hikes decreased since last week, early investors returned to the market, and a significant weakening of the US dollar and a "pause" in the Iranian situation also provided support. However, gold prices have fallen by about 24% from the record high of $5,595 reached in January, and by 19% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Data from the World Gold Council shows that central bank gold purchases in the first half of 2026 will be the lowest since 2022. In the second quarter, gold ETFs saw outflows of 45 tons, and gold prices fell by 14% during the same period, marking the largest quarterly drop since 2013. A JPMorgan report stated that with central bank buying slowing, retail interest shifting, and weak physical demand in Asia, interest rate-sensitive ETF flows have once again become the dominant force determining the marginal trend of gold prices. Analyst Wong believes that for precious metals to truly gain further momentum, the market must factor in expectations of interest rate cuts, but this is unlikely to happen until 2027 at the earliest. In other precious metals, spot silver rose 4.24% to $62.75 per barrel, platinum fell slightly by 0.2% to $1,740.04, and palladium rose 1.5% to $1,373.24. The latter two were boosted by news of peace talks in Iran, reaching their highest levels since June.

oil market

Oil prices closed mixed on Wednesday, with Brent crude rising slightly by 0.9% to settle at $79.40 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 0.08% to settle at $75.08 a barrel. Investors are assessing the prospects for the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz while facing a complex situation with mixed bullish and bearish sentiment. US President Trump claimed that the US and Iran had held "very good all-day talks" and threatened "fierce" strikes if no agreement was reached. However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied that peace talks were underway, stating only that it had reached an understanding with Oman on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz and was finalizing a joint statement. This uncertainty kept the market cautiously optimistic. Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn pointed out that the agreement seemed fragile and that similar agreements in the past had not lasted. Meanwhile, supply-side pressure came from data from the US Energy Information Administration showing that crude oil inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels to 407 million barrels last week, far exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.5 million barrel decrease. The larger-than-expected increase in Cushing inventories further pressured US oil prices. However, geopolitical risks in the Red Sea limited the decline. The Houthi rebels, allied with Iran, claimed to have attacked a Saudi oil tanker near the Saudi export port of Yanbu. Furthermore, supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war affected the Caspian Pipeline Union. Due to security concerns and tanker shortages, the main export route for Kazakhstan's crude oil had repeatedly suspended loading operations this week, collectively shaping the current mixed oil price pattern.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index held steady at 99.70 on Wednesday, as safe-haven demand cooled amid optimism that the war with Iran was nearing its end. Traders lowered their bets on a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve (the probability fell to just below 60%, down from nearly 70% at the start of the week), despite Kansas City Fed President Schmid saying monetary policy needed to be tightened to curb inflation. The yen stabilized, with the dollar closing near 157.69 against the yen on Wednesday, after the US and Japan intervened in the currency market for the first time since 1998, buying yen and pushing the dollar to a three-month low. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated that he would support Japan's efforts to stabilize the yen "at all costs," raising market expectations for a September rate hike by the Bank of Japan. However, analysts generally remain skeptical about the long-term effects of the intervention. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, noted that the market will test the central bank's resolve, and Friday's US jobs report could provide fundamental support.

International News

The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 54.4%, and the probability of at least one rate hike this year is 80.1%. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 45.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 54.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 33.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 19.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 44.5%, and the probability of at least a 50 basis point rate hike is 35.6%. Iran and Oman finalize draft agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, awaiting approval from Iran's Supreme Leader. Two Middle Eastern officials stated that negotiators from Iran and Oman have finalized a draft agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and are awaiting final approval from Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba. The proposed interim arrangement stipulates that ships entering the Persian Gulf will pass through Iranian-controlled channels, while ships leaving the Persian Gulf will pass through Oman-controlled channels, with service fees charged for security and environmental protection. Officials say this agreement could pave the way for the resumption of US-Iran negotiations related to Iran's nuclear program. Gulf officials say the probability of a US-Iran agreement on Friday is 50/50 . According to a senior Gulf official speaking to the media, the probability of the US and Iran reaching an interim agreement this Friday is about 50/50, a more cautious assessment than the optimistic signals previously released by the US. The source pointed out that the Iranian delegation does not include representatives of the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which must approve the details of any interim agreement, adding uncertainty to the final outcome due to internal political maneuvering. While the US claims to be having very good discussions with Iran, it has also issued a stern threat that Iran will face severe repercussions if it withdraws from the agreement again, highlighting the fragility of the negotiations with this carrot-and-stick approach. Iranian officials insist on denying direct communication with Washington, emphasizing that their consultations are limited to Oman, focusing on technical solutions to the shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz. Some diplomats believe that lifting the strait blockade is a key bargaining chip, and a breakthrough could open up space for broader US-Iran dialogue. However, the current public disagreements between the two sides on communication channels make the prospects highly uncertain. Iran says it is close to reaching an agreement with Oman, closing two existing shipping lanes in the strait. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated on the 5th that an agreement between Iran and Oman on the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing finalization. At that time, both the northern shipping lane controlled by Iran and the southern shipping lane closer to Oman will be closed. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on the 5th, Gharibabadi said in an interview that a new passage model will be established in the Strait of Hormuz, different from the past 60 years. Currently, the southern shipping lane through Omani territorial waters and the northern shipping lane within Iranian territorial waters will be closed. Under the newly established routes, commercial vessels entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz will pass through Iranian territorial waters. However, the new routes are also temporary and are expected to be usable for two to four months. Gharibabadi denied reports that Iran and the US were negotiating, but stated that Iran had received a message from the US, and that the US indicated its readiness to resume fulfilling commitments under the previously signed memorandum of understanding. (Xinhua) Some US AI Models Found to Persist in Harmful Behavior During Testing A new report released by the UK's Institute for Artificial Intelligence Security reveals that in cybersecurity assessment tests conducted by the institute, some artificial intelligence (AI) agents persistently engaged in unauthorized and potentially harmful behavior against real individuals and institutions via the internet. The report states that the assessment tests required the agents to complete a cybersecurity challenge. Testers conducted 122 rounds of testing using seven models, and in 10 rounds, they found that the AI agents performed 19 actions that clearly exceeded the test's scope. Of these, 17 involved the "Claude Myth 5" model from the US company Anthropic, and two were performed by the GPT-5.6 Sol model from the US OpenAI Research Center. (Xinhua) Federal Reserve's Kashkari: Now is the Time to Start Gradual Rate Hikes Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member, said in an interview on Wednesday that the Fed should now "start gradually raising" interest rates to reduce inflation and avoid the need for larger rate hikes in the future. Kashkari was one of three voting members who supported a 25-basis-point rate hike at last week's FOMC meeting. He stated that current strong corporate earnings, resilient consumer and labor markets, and no evidence that monetary policy has become significantly restrictive make it time to start gradually raising rates. He emphasized that this does not advocate for large rate hikes, but rather for "small steps" to avoid being forced to aggressively tighten policy once inflation becomes deeply entrenched. He added that it is uncertain what action the FOMC will take in September, and future data will play a crucial role. Meanwhile, Kashkari said that Fed Chairman Warsh did not pressure him, telling him, "Do what you think is right for the economy." White House AI Review Excludes US Open Weight Models On September 4, the White House disclosed a framework for testing the capabilities of cutting-edge models to major US artificial intelligence (AI) companies, excluding US open weight models from the review scope. Multiple sources familiar with the matter disclosed this information to US media on the same day. Open weight models are considered open-source models in a broad sense, referring to AI models that publicly disclose their weight files—that is, the model parameters after training—and allow downloading, local deployment, and fine-tuning. However, these models do not need to publicly disclose their training data, complete code, or training process. The sources said that only closed, patented US models that demonstrate "state-of-the-art" cybersecurity and attack capabilities in performance benchmarks are required to voluntarily submit them to the government for testing before release. (Xinhua)

Domestic News

Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE): Coking coal options will be listed for trading starting September 2, 2026 (Wednesday) . The opening auction will be held from 8:55 to 9:00 AM, with trading commencing at 9:00 AM. Night trading will also commence on Wednesday, September 2nd. The position limit for coking coal options is 5,000 lots. Position limits for coking coal options are separate from those for coking coal futures. For non-futures company members and clients, the sum of all long positions in call options and short positions in put options, and the sum of all long positions in put options and short positions in call options for a given month's contracts, must not exceed the position limit for each option type. Positions with actual control relationships are calculated together. Unitree Robotics' IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) has begun its preliminary price inquiry, with market estimates suggesting a potential market capitalization exceeding 40 billion yuan. According to previous announcements, August 5th was the preliminary price inquiry date for Unitree Robotics' STAR Market IPO. Following the price inquiry, subscriptions will open on August 10th, with both online and offline subscriptions on the same date. The payment deadline is August 12th. During the preliminary price inquiry period on August 5th (9:30 AM to 3:00 PM), the sponsor (lead underwriter) will conduct verification of offline investors, and investors participating in the strategic placement will pay their subscription funds. On August 6th, the issue price will be determined, valid bidders and their eligible subscription shares will be identified, and the final allocation quantity and proportion for investors participating in the strategic placement will be determined. Unitree Robotics plans to raise 4.202 billion yuan through its IPO, issuing 40.4464 million new shares, representing 10% of the total share capital after the issuance. The total share capital after the issuance will be 404 million shares. Market estimates suggest that Unitree Robotics' IPO market capitalization will exceed 40 billion yuan. Based on the subscription unit of 500 shares for new shares on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the estimated market capitalization, the IPO price of Unitree Robotics is estimated at approximately 104 yuan per share, with a subscription fee of approximately 52,000 yuan per lot. However, the specific deviation from the IPO price estimate still needs to be determined by market participants. (CCTV Finance)