Introduction: From August 10th to 14th, the market will face an extremely dense window of data verification. In addition to monetary and consumer inflation indicators in China and the US, multiple variables such as the US Treasury auction, the OPEC monthly report, and statements from Federal Reserve officials will intertwine, making the market highly susceptible to short-term impulses and expectation corrections.

Monday (August 10): Domestic social financing implementation and the Bank of Japan's "hawkish and dovish" probes

China: July M2, social financing, and new loans released. Overseas: Japan releases July policy board summary and August Sentix confidence index. Key points: Domestically, focus on whether the M1-M2 gap stabilizes to assess the degree of capital accumulation and real economy activation; regarding Japan, pay attention to whether the central bank's meeting minutes contain any marginal wording regarding "additional interest rate hikes" or "balance sheet reduction progress."

Tuesday (August 11): Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates steady and US employment/housing data preview

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision (expected to remain at 4.35%), followed by a press conference by Bullock. US: Weekly ADP employment data, July existing home sales. Key points: Focus on whether the RBA retains the "possibility of further rate hikes"; US stocks/bonds will trade in advance on the effects of ADP employment fluctuations on Thursday/Friday's data.

Wednesday (August 12): Global Inflation Day (Major) and a Triple Blow in Crude Oil Prices

Macro: US July CPI, German July CPI. Energy: OPEC Monthly Crude Oil Report, US API/EIA Inventories. Key Focus: The US July CPI is the highest risk point of the week, directly determining the pricing of the Fed's rate cut/no rate cut/the magnitude of the rate cut in September; for crude oil, attention should be paid to OPEC's revisions or increases in its demand forecasts for the second half of the year.

Thursday (August 13): PPI follows, 10-year US Treasury auction and statements from Federal Reserve officials.

Data: US July PPI, initial jobless claims for the week, UK GDP. Events: US 10-year Treasury auction; speeches by 2026 voting members Hamak and Barkin. Key points: Sub-items in PPI such as healthcare and airfare will directly impact PCE expectations; the 10-year Treasury auction requires observation of the bid-to-cover ratio and tail premium of overseas buyers, and caution should be exercised regarding a second rebound in US Treasury yields.

Friday (August 14): The "dreaded data" concludes and sets the tone for inflation expectations.

US: July retail sales (the most concerning data), August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and 1-year/5-year inflation expectations. Key takeaways: Retail sales will determine whether the US experiences a "soft landing" or a "recession"; the short-term impact of Michigan inflation expectations is often underestimated, especially the rise in long-term (5-year) inflation expectations, which often triggers market concerns about a strong hawkish stance.

Exclusive trading insights and the easily overlooked "expectation gap" (from a trader's perspective)

US July CPI: Don't Just Look at the Data, Pay Attention to These Two "Detailed Poison Pills" Used Car and Airfare Price Rebound: Many investors only look at whether the year-on-year/month-on-month CPI exceeds expectations, but short-term fluctuations in used car and airfare prices often disrupt the overall trend judgment. Supercore Inflation: This refers to core service inflation excluding housing. If housing inflation (Shelter/OER) slows as expected, but Supercore is highly sticky due to persistently high labor costs, the Fed will still find it difficult to adopt a hawkish stance. Market Pricing Benchmark: Pay attention in advance to how many basis points (bps) the interest rate swap (OIS) market has already priced in before the data release. If the market has over-priced in a "50 bp rate cut," even if the CPI data meets expectations, it may trigger a "sell-the-news" rebound in the dollar and a correction in US stocks. Thursday's US 10-Year Treasury Auction: An Easily Overlooked "Liquidity Killer" General macroeconomic analysis only focuses on economic data, but the supply and demand results of Treasury auctions are often the trigger for sudden and sharp fluctuations in US Treasury yields.

Observation indicators:

Tail (tail spread): If the winning bid rate is significantly higher than the pre-issuance trading rate, it indicates that primary dealers are forced to take over, resulting in poor supply absorption, a surge in US Treasury yields, and downward pressure on US stocks and gold. Indirect Bidders (representing overseas central banks and institutions): A low allocation ratio means overseas funds are leaving the market, which is bearish for the US dollar and bullish for US Treasury yields. University of Michigan's "Inflation Expectations" on Friday: A "cold shot" at the end of the trading day. On Friday evenings, the market often thinks the "terrifying data (retail sales)" is over, but the University of Michigan's 5-year long-term inflation expectations often trigger sudden shifts in sentiment during US stock trading. The Federal Reserve is extremely concerned about "inflation expectations losing their anchor." Once long-term inflation expectations exceed the expected 2.9%-3.0% range and rise above 3.2%, the market will instantly erase any future room for interest rate cuts. Cross-Asset Correlation Divergence Signals: Gold vs. USD/US Treasuries: Pay attention to whether gold exhibits a "dollar rises, gold doesn't fall" or "US Treasury yields rise, gold follows suit" phenomenon after the CPI release. This divergence often indicates that the market is trading on "reflation" or "geopolitical risk/safe-haven attributes," rather than simply trading on the Fed's interest rate policy. Unraveling the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Global Carry Trade: Monday's Bank of Japan opinion summary is crucial. If the summary reveals a strong willingness to raise interest rates, it could trigger another round of global carry trade unwinding, putting pressure on global risk assets, especially highly valued tech stocks.