Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi explicitly stated that no direct negotiations have taken place with the United States, and information is being exchanged only through intermediaries. US President Trump and several senior officials had previously hinted that an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. Iran's Supreme National Security Council has put forward five conditions for reopening the strait, including the lifting of sanctions, troop withdrawal, and war reparations. The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a drone attack on Saudi Aramco's oil refinery in Jizan.

I. Diplomatic Game: The US and Iran Hold Conflicting Views

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi explicitly denied direct negotiations. On August 9th local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi made a new statement, clearly stating that Iran is currently not engaged in any direct negotiations with the United States. According to Iran's Mehr News Agency, Araqchi pointed out that although Iran is not negotiating with the United States, the two sides are exchanging information through intermediaries, and some countries are still working to pave the way for restarting negotiations. Araqchi emphasized that Iran believes there is no possibility of restarting negotiations until the United States ceases its violations of the memorandum of understanding and remedies the related breaches. This statement contrasts sharply with the previous optimistic expectations of the United States. The United States released optimistic signals. US President Donald Trump stated on August 6th that an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz "cannot be said to be formally reached," but the strait is currently "open to some extent," and the United States is involved in relevant negotiations, with overall progress being good. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant told CNBC on Tuesday that an agreement allowing free passage through the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as Wednesday. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously also indicated that an agreement was imminent. U.S. Vice President Vance stated on the 8th that the U.S.-Iran standoff is currently in an intermediate phase, and the conflict is not yet over. The U.S. will utilize a combination of diplomatic, economic, and military tools, with the primary goal of restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman is playing a key mediating role. Araghchi revealed that negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the establishment of a new route through the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing and progressing well, currently in their final stages. According to the negotiation results, a new route will replace the existing one—inbound vessels will use Iranian waters, while outbound vessels will use Omani waters. However, Araghchi explicitly emphasized that negotiations with Oman do not mean the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened; the reopening of the strait depends on other conditions conveyed to the U.S. through intermediaries.

II. Iran sets out five conditions, taking a harder stance.

The Supreme National Security Council has outlined its demands. According to Iran's Press TV on the 8th, Mohammad Bagher Zulghader, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed if the United States does not change its behavior. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on the United States meeting five conditions: first, a permanent cessation of military action against Iran and its regional allies; second, an end to threats or insults against Iran; third, the lifting of the maritime blockade and all sanctions against Iran; fourth, the return of frozen Iranian assets; and fifth, compensation for losses caused to Iran by the related military actions. The hardliners' gaining the upper hand has raised concerns. According to media reports, an anonymous representative of the mediators, in an interview with CNN, expressed concern that Zulghader's latest demands indicate that Iranian hardliners are gaining the upper hand, potentially delaying the agreement process. Under the interim agreement signed by the US and Iran in June, a timetable for ending sanctions and a compensation plan will be part of the final agreement, which will also include negotiations on frozen assets. The agreed 60-day negotiation period for the final agreement will end in a little over a week. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi pointed out on the 8th that even if an agreement is reached with Oman, it does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. The reopening of the strait depends on other conditions, including that the United States must compensate for its violation of the memorandum of understanding.

III. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has shrunk dramatically.

Traffic volume plummeted by 33%. According to trade intelligence firm Kpler, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on August 7th fell by 33% compared to the previous day, with most vessels using Iranian routes. Kpler data shows that only two ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on August 5th, down from eight the previous day. Before the Iran-Iraq War began in February, the daily average of ships passing through the strait was far higher. The Iranian parliament is considering a draft bill to restrict traffic. According to Iranian state media, the Iranian parliament is considering a draft bill to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the draft, Iran would ban US and Israeli ships from passing through the strait, and other countries that have harmed Iran would also be barred from passing until they pay compensation. Oil price reaction. Affected by supply concerns, international benchmark Brent crude futures rose more than 3% on Monday (August 10th) from Friday's closing price to $84.77 per barrel, a four-day high. Oil prices fell more than 7% for the week as traders weighed the possibility of a diplomatic solution against ongoing attacks on shipping.

IV. Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco oil refinery

A Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jizan was attacked by drones. On August 9th local time, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for a "precision strike" using drones against the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan, Saudi Arabia. Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarreya stated in a statement that the strike was in response to a recent Saudi drone violation of Yemeni airspace. Earlier that day, the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Energy confirmed on social media that a fire broke out at a facility at the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan in the early hours of the morning. The company's industrial safety fire brigade extinguished the fire, and no casualties were reported. The Saudi Ministry of Energy stated in a statement that "relevant departments are completing the necessary procedures for handling the incident at the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan," but did not specify the cause of the fire. This is the second attack in two weeks. According to consulting firm IIR, the refinery has been shut down since July 27th after a Houthi attack damaged its integrated gasification combined cycle unit and tank area. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated last week that the attack caused some production disruptions but did not have a significant operational or financial impact. The Jizan refinery has a daily production capacity of approximately 400,000 barrels. This attack occurred two days after Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which considers an armed attack against any one of the three countries as an attack against all three. Observers will be watching to see whether Turkey and Pakistan will consider the Houthi attack to be in accordance with the collective defense clause.

Editor's Summary

The current situation in the Strait of Hormuz is highly uncertain. On the one hand, high-ranking US officials have repeatedly signaled optimism that an agreement is imminent, attempting to resolve the deadlock through diplomatic means. On the other hand, the Iranian Foreign Minister has explicitly denied the existence of direct negotiations and, through the Supreme National Security Council, has put forward five harsh conditions, directly linking the lifting of sanctions, troop withdrawal, and compensation to the reopening of the strait. The huge gap between the US and Iran on their core demands has cast a shadow over the prospect of a comprehensive agreement in the short term. Shipping data shows a significant contraction in strait traffic, and this vital route, which accounts for about one-fifth of the world's energy supply, faces the risk of continued disruption. Meanwhile, the Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco's oil refinery has further escalated regional tensions, and the newly signed Mecca Joint Defense Agreement by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan faces its first practical test. International oil prices remain highly volatile, caught between supply concerns and diplomatic maneuvering. Investors need to closely monitor the progress of the 60-day interim agreement negotiation period ending in a little over a week, and whether the draft travel restrictions being reviewed by the Iranian parliament will be formally passed.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: Have Iran and the United States actually held any negotiations? A: According to Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi's latest statement on August 9, Iran is not currently holding any direct negotiations with the United States. However, the two sides are exchanging information through intermediaries (mediators), and some countries are still working to pave the way for restarting negotiations. This is in stark contrast to the signals previously released by the United States that "an agreement is about to be reached." Q2: What conditions does Iran demand from the United States for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened? A: Iran's Supreme National Security Council has put forward five conditions: a permanent cessation of military operations against Iran and its regional allies; cessation of threats or insults against Iran; lifting of the maritime blockade and all sanctions against Iran; return of frozen Iranian assets; and compensation for the losses caused to Iran by the related military operations. Iran has made it clear that if the United States does not change its behavior, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. Q3: What does the negotiation between Iran and Oman mean? A: Iran and Oman are negotiating to determine a new shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz, and it has now entered the final stage. According to the negotiation results, a new shipping route will replace the existing one—inbound vessels will pass through Iranian waters, and outbound vessels will pass through Omani waters. However, the Iranian Foreign Minister clearly emphasized that the negotiations with Oman do not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened; the reopening of the strait still depends on whether the United States meets other conditions put forward by Iran. Question 4: What is the current shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz? Answer: According to data from trade intelligence company Kpler, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on August 7 was down 33% from the previous day. Only two ships passed through the strait on August 5, down from eight the previous day. In addition, the Iranian parliament is reviewing a draft bill to ban US and Israeli ships from passing through the strait. Question 5: What impact has the Houthi attack on the Saudi Aramco refinery had on the situation? Answer: On August 9, the Houthi rebels launched a drone attack on the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan. This was the second attack on the refinery in two weeks. This attack occurred two days after Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, posing the first test to the new agreement. The Jizan refinery has a daily output of approximately 400,000 barrels. The attack further exacerbated uncertainty surrounding regional energy supplies, causing Brent crude to jump more than 3% in early trading on Monday. As of 10:49 Beijing time, Brent crude was trading at $84.31 per barrel.