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With 60% of American companies choosing to bear part of the costs themselves, what have tariffs truly changed?

2026-08-14 17:56:55

On Friday, August 14th, the tariff issues facing US companies have evolved from simply rising import costs to a comprehensive competition involving cash flow, financing capabilities, supply chain adjustment capabilities, and legal resources. In July, the US CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year; the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month but still rose 4.7% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29th. Inflationary pressures have eased somewhat from their highs this year, but financing costs remain significantly higher than during periods of low interest rates. In this macroeconomic environment, the new round of small business lawsuits triggered by import tariffs warrants a re-examination by the market. The issue is no longer just about how much tariffs companies ultimately bear, but also who must advance cash, who can pass on costs, who has the ability to restructure the supply chain, and who can bear the long-term legal and compliance costs. The biggest difference between tariffs and ordinary operating costs is that importers typically need to pay the relevant taxes before the goods are sold. Therefore, the same additional cost of 1 million yuan has completely different impacts on large enterprises with ample cash reserves and small enterprises that rely heavily on inventory turnover. 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看 Recent research estimates that from January 2025 to June 2026, the cumulative gross tariff revenue from new tariffs will be approximately $283.9 billion. The scale itself is merely a superficial indicator; more importantly, these funds first flow out of the working capital of importing companies. This directly alters the cash conversion cycle. After purchasing goods, companies simultaneously incur costs for procurement, transportation, warehousing, and tariffs, but revenue is only generated after the goods are sold. The smaller the company, the more limited its inventory financing and short-term credit, making it easier for tariffs to transform from a profit and loss statement issue into a balance sheet issue. Further data from 2026 shows that US small businesses employ approximately 62.3 million people, accounting for 45.9% of private sector employment. Therefore, the continued squeeze on small business cash flow is not limited to a few importers at the micro level but may spread to the real economy through hiring, inventory, and capital expenditures. Company size determines not only bargaining power but also the channels through which tariff shocks can be absorbed. Surveys of businesses show that over 40% of small businesses cite rising tariff-related costs as a financial challenge, with the figure reaching 69% for retail businesses and 62% for manufacturing businesses. Faced with increased costs, approximately 60% of affected businesses chose to absorb at least a portion of the tariff costs themselves. Self-absorption puts pressure on gross margins, while passing the costs on to customers could impact sales volume; therefore, businesses are essentially redistributing the impact between profit margins and revenue. Size differences are particularly pronounced in manufacturing. Previous surveys showed that 40% of small and medium-sized manufacturing businesses were uncertain about future input costs, compared to only 23% of large manufacturing businesses. Simultaneously, 38% of small and medium-sized manufacturing businesses postponed capital expenditures due to tariffs, compared to 17% of large enterprises. This data reveals a variable truly worthy of market attention: tariffs do not uniformly raise the cost curve across the entire business sector, but rather widen the gaps in financing capabilities, inventory management capabilities, and supply chain resilience among businesses. The special aspect of 2026 is that some previously levied tariffs are entering the refund phase, while new tariff arrangements are facing renewed litigation. On July 24th, several small businesses in the United States filed another lawsuit challenging a new round of tariffs covering a large number of trading partners. Therefore, for businesses, tariffs have generated two types of cash flows: the first is the current import taxes payable, and the second is the potential refund assets formed from historical taxes. However, refunds do not guarantee an immediate return to liquidity for businesses. Application, review, customs documentation preparation, and potential litigation all incur time and professional costs. For large enterprises, a substantial potential refund may cover the costs of a professional team; for small importers, the refund amount may be insufficient to support lengthy legal proceedings. This means that even if companies of different sizes theoretically have the same refund rights, their actual recovery rates and recovery periods may differ. Ultimately, the difference is not simply a difference in tax burden, but a difference in the speed of liquidity recovery. From a macroeconomic perspective, the first round of tariff transmission to the price level is already quite evident. Federal Reserve research estimates that by February 2026, tariffs implemented in 2025 will cumulatively increase core commodity PCE prices by approximately 3.1% and the overall core PCE price level by approximately 0.8%. However, the core issue at the transaction level has begun to shift from simple inflation transmission to the quality of corporate earnings. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting show that financing conditions for large enterprises remain relatively loose overall, while credit conditions for small businesses remain tight. When tight financing conditions coexist with tariff prepayments, small businesses are more likely to reduce inventory, postpone investment, or scale back operations.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.

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