The international crude oil market has recently been mired in significant information discrepancies, with official Middle East oil export data released by the U.S. Department of Energy showing a large discrepancy with actual data from major shipping monitoring agencies. While U.S. energy officials claim that Middle East crude oil exports have returned to normal or even surpassed pre-conflict levels, ship tracking data, industry assessments, and official U.S. energy reports all confirm that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely hampered. The market widely believes that the U.S.'s high-profile release of optimistic data may be driven by political motives to suppress oil prices and alleviate domestic economic pressures.

Official US data is significantly optimistic, creating a stark contrast with industry-reliable data.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright publicly stated that Middle Eastern oil exports have rebounded to 15 million barrels per day, with Sunday's single-day export volume exceeding the pre-conflict average of 20 million barrels per day. This statement signaled a significant easing of crude oil supply, but was widely questioned by commodity analysts and ship tracking agencies. Various tanker monitoring data show that current crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is only about half of the data released by the U.S. Overall market statistics indicate that Middle Eastern crude oil exports through all channels this month have only remained in the range of 9 million barrels per day, a significant gap of 3 to 5 million barrels per day compared to U.S. data, making the data's accuracy difficult to verify. In mid-last week, Chris Wright again posted on social media, reiterating that Middle Eastern oil flows had returned to normal. In response to external doubts, he further stated that the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with the U.S. military, possesses authoritative data on oil and gas exports from the Arabian Gulf, and that private institutions generally underestimate data due to their inability to count concealed vessels. However, he did not disclose the statistical methods and calculation criteria of the official data, lacking substantial supporting evidence.

Authoritative institutions have collectively refuted the rumors, and the current situation of restrictions across the Taiwan Strait is a fait accompli.

Matt Smith, Director of Commodities Research at Kpler, a leading industry monitoring agency, stated that the officially released data is completely inconsistent with actual market observations, and the data discrepancy cannot be reasonably explained. Kpler's real-time monitoring data shows that as US-Iran negotiations have once again stalled, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline, and the tight supply situation has not eased. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report released last week, explicitly stated that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is severely restricted, and this tense situation will persist throughout August, directly refuting the US claims of ample supply. Industry organizations predict that once the crude oil import statistics of various countries are released in the next five to six weeks, the veracity of the US data will be fully verified.

High oil prices force media regulation, highlighting the pressure on people's livelihoods in the United States.

Market analysts believe there are clear political motives behind this data controversy. The US midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, and gasoline prices in the US remain high. Last week, the national average gasoline price remained above $4 per gallon, setting a record high for August. The American Automobile Association (AAA) stated last Thursday that even with a slight decline in gasoline demand, high crude oil prices continue to push up end-user prices, significantly higher than normal levels for the same period in previous years. Patrick de Haan, head of oil analysis at GasBuddy, added that the national average gasoline price reached $4.06 per gallon on August 13th, a record high for that date, far exceeding the low of $2.13 per gallon in the same period of 2016. To alleviate public discontent and control market expectations for oil prices, the US may have a motive to deliberately release optimistic supply data and guide market sentiment.

Conclusion

Overall, data from civilian shipping monitoring and professional energy agencies have reached a consensus, confirming that Middle Eastern crude oil exports remain constrained, and the optimistic data from the US lacks substantial support. Short-term oil prices may fluctuate due to public opinion, but the fundamental supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged. Continued monitoring of actual crude oil circulation data and changes in US consumer oil prices is necessary.