Iran's attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have increased significantly recently, and the United States has so far refrained from direct military retaliation. This restraint is driving up the risk premium of this crucial global energy corridor and has also displeased some of its Gulf Arab allies, who are concerned about the lack of a clear path to ending the conflict. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has shifted its strategic focus from military strikes to economic blockades and sanctions, attempting to force concessions from Iran by cutting off its foreign trade routes. Brent crude oil prices rose to a three-week high this week amid geopolitical tensions, and were last quoted at around $91.59 per barrel in Asian trading on Wednesday (August 19).

Escalation of the attack and casualties

The UAE Ministry of Defense stated that Iran launched two ballistic missiles towards the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday (August 18), targeting maritime traffic. The missiles triggered the UAE's air defense system and ultimately landed in the sea. A maritime security company reported that earlier that day, an attack struck the engine room of a bulk carrier in the Strait of Hormuz east of Oman, killing the chief engineer. The UAE stated that Iran has attacked seven UAE vessels this month. Attacks so far in August account for approximately 20% of all attacks against shipping during the nearly six-month-long conflict. Marine risk firm Marisks reported that the previous night's attack brought the number of ships attacked near the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in August to 14, approaching the level of the entire month of July. Data from ship tracking agency Kpler shows that merchant ships transiting the two straits have been attacked approximately 70 times during the war, resulting in 24 deaths and 45 injuries. No one has yet officially claimed responsibility for the latest attack, but the incident highlights the risks in Omani waters and nearby shipping lanes. The US stated that it has cleared the mines, a move that angered Iran, which wants ships to use the northern route, managed by Tehran, closer to its coast. Marisks founder and CEO Dimitris Maniatis pointed out that the threat has escalated from minor damage or signaling to a direct and significant risk to seafarers.

A Shift in US Strategy: From Military Retaliation to Economic Stifling

The U.S. Central Command has not announced any retaliatory strikes against targets inside Iran since late July. The U.S. military continues to enforce the port blockade, including launching Hellfire missiles to intercept ships attempting to break through. Since the blockade was reinstated in July, the U.S. military has diverted 64 merchant ships, rendered three ships unpowered, and boarded two ships for inspection. This restraint reflects Trump's current strategy: reducing military operations and increasing economic pressure on Tehran. Earlier this summer, the U.S. launched several severe strikes, prompting Iran to launch missiles and drones. Prior to Tuesday, the UAE's air defense system had not been triggered since mid-July. Small-scale skirmishes have depleted the stockpile of defensive interceptor missiles and also posed a high risk to Gulf energy infrastructure. On Tuesday, Trump posted a map of the waterways on social media, captioned "New U.S. Territory," and reiterated that the maritime blockade was in full effect and the Strait of Hormuz remained open. He also stated that there were no plans for negotiations with Iran, either now or in the future. Previously, Special Envoy Kushner had mentioned positive dialogue, but Trump denied it. U.S. officials revealed that Trump was dissatisfied with Iran's unwillingness to meet its demands and instructed the negotiating team to halt contact until Iran showed new willingness. The strategy is shifting from "devastating as quickly as possible" to "gradually strangling." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant warned last week of unprecedented economic isolation measures to blockade Iranian ports. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz stated that Tehran fears the finance minister more than the defense minister. The deployment of additional U.S. troops left Trump with the option to expand, but he ultimately chose economic pressure.

Shipping disruptions and the UAE's response

Ships are still passing through, but traffic is far lower than during the ceasefires in June and July. Kpler reported only 10 passages on Monday and an average of about 15 per day this month. Most ships are using the southern or northern Iranian routes with their transponders off; of the 255 passages this month, only two have openly used the US-backed route along the Omani coast. Attacks on UAE vessels threaten the support model for its crude oil exports. Producers led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) have been chartering ships for "shuttle transport" since April: shipping crude oil and products from inside the Gulf, unloading them outside the Gulf to await shipment to global markets. June Goh, an analyst at Sparta Commodities, said Adnoc charters 25 ships from South Korea's Sinokor, 15 of which are used for short-haul transport. Data from the International Energy Agency shows that UAE crude oil production reached 3.9 million barrels per day in July, up from 3.6 million barrels per day before the war; while production in Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia is at least 20% lower than before the war. The attacks have affected multiple oil tankers owned or chartered by Adnoc Logistics and Services. Two tankers were attacked in mid-July, resulting in one death. Four more were attacked in the first week of August, and three more were attacked last week.

Iran's stance and regional reactions

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei denied launching missiles at the UAE, calling the accusations "baseless" and accusing the UAE of violating the principle of good neighborliness. The UAE subsequently announced a suspension of all trade, commerce, and financial ties with Iran. Iran insisted on controlling shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and refused to concede. Gulf officials believe that US allies are caught in the middle: unwilling to escalate the conflict further, yet worried that a lack of US response would encourage Iran to escalate attacks. They predict that Iran will ultimately respond militarily to economic pressure, reigniting the conflict.

Editor's Summary

The rising frequency of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz contrasts sharply with US restraint, as the Trump administration bets that economic blockades and sanctions will be more effective than military or diplomatic means, leading to the diversion of several merchant ships and strengthened port quarantines. The UAE is maintaining production through shuttle transport, but ships and personnel continue to suffer losses. Brent crude oil remains near a three-week high above $90, with traffic significantly lower than before the conflict and during the ceasefire. Regional allies question the sustainability of the strategy, Iran denies some accusations and has suspended trade, and negotiation channels are temporarily closed. The conflict has entered a stalemate, with energy corridor risks and economic pressures coexisting; the future direction depends on whether both sides can find a balance in the cycle of blockades and attacks.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What are the specific direct consequences of Iran's recent attacks in the Strait of Hormuz? A: The number of attacks in August accounted for approximately 20% of all attacks against shipping during the nearly six-month conflict. This month, the number of ships attacked near the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has increased to 14. The latest attack hit the engine room of a bulk carrier, killing the chief engineer. The UAE claims seven ships have been attacked this month. The total number of attacks during the war has reached approximately 70, resulting in 24 deaths and 45 injuries. Some ships have been forced to turn off their transponders and change routes, with traffic volume dropping sharply from pre-war highs to an average of about 15 times per day, and only 10 times on Monday. The UAE's air defense system was triggered, and two missiles fell into the sea. These incidents directly increase risks for seafarers and shipping costs, but most attacks have not caused catastrophic damage sufficient to force an immediate US military response. Q: Why has the US chosen to restrain itself from a military response and instead turn to economic pressure? A: The Trump administration judged that cutting off Iran's trade with the world might be more effective than military strikes or diplomatic negotiations. Since late July, the Central Command has not announced retaliatory strikes against targets within Iran, but instead strengthened port blockades: diverting 64 merchant ships, disabling three, boarding and inspecting two, and intercepting them with Hellfire missiles. Finance Minister Bessenter warned of unprecedented economic isolation measures. The US Ambassador to the UN stated that Tehran was more afraid of financial pressure. The strategy shifted from "devastating as quickly as possible" to "gradual strangulation," while Trump announced a halt to engagement with Iran until the latter showed new willingness. This move aimed to exploit Iran's economic vulnerability to force concessions, while avoiding a significant escalation of the conflict that would deplete interceptor missile stocks and jeopardize Gulf energy facilities. Q: How did the UAE respond to the attacks and maintain crude oil exports? A: Since April, the UAE has responded using a "shuttle transport" model: chartered vessels such as Adnoc transport crude oil and products from within the Gulf, unload them outside the Gulf to await shipments for export. Adnoc chartered 25 vessels from South Korea's Sinokor, 15 of which were used for short-haul operations. International Energy Agency data shows that its crude oil production reached 3.9 million barrels per day in July, higher than the pre-war 3.6 million barrels per day, while neighboring countries' production generally declined by at least 20%. However, the attacks have affected Adnoc-related vessels: two were attacked in mid-July, resulting in one death; four were attacked in the first week of August, and three last week. The UAE subsequently suspended all trade, commerce, and financial dealings with Iran in response to the missile launch allegations. Q: What is the current state of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and how does it affect oil prices? A: Ships are still passing through, but the flow is far lower than during the ceasefire in June and July. Of the 255 passages this month, only two openly used the US-backed Omani coastal route; most took the southern route or the northern Iranian route and turned off their transponders. The US claims to have cleared mines and facilitated passage to alleviate pressure on the energy market. Brent crude rose to a near three-week high this week, remaining near $91.7 in the latest trading day. Although it has fallen from the early war highs, it is still significantly higher than pre-war levels. Market concerns about the long-term obstruction of the passage are supporting prices, while supply risks and global demand factors are also at play. Q: What is the current status of the Trump administration's negotiations with Iran and the attitudes of regional allies? A: Trump has made it clear that there are no plans for negotiations with Iran now or in the future, and has instructed his team to cease contact until Iran is ready to reach an agreement. Previously, a special envoy had mentioned positive dialogue, but this was denied by the president. Iran denies launching missiles at the UAE, accusing it of violating the principle of good neighborliness, and insists on controlling shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf officials believe that US allies are caught in a dilemma: unwilling to escalate the conflict further, yet worried that a lack of US response would encourage Iran to escalate attacks, and anticipating that economic pressure will ultimately trigger a military backlash. Trump released a map of the Strait of Hormuz labeled "new US territory" and reiterated the effectiveness of the blockade, further sending a tough signal. With overall negotiation channels closed, regional trust damaged, and the conflict entering a stalemate primarily focused on economic issues and limited attacks. At 10:56 Beijing time, Brent crude oil was trading at $91.68 per barrel.