Spot silver continued its upward trend in Asian trading on Friday, trading around $68.70 per ounce, marking its third consecutive day of gains. So far this week, silver has risen by nearly 6%, making it one of the best-performing precious metals. Recent increased volatility in global currency and bond markets has led investors to increase their allocations to precious metals, providing silver with support from both safe-haven demand and a weakening US dollar. One of the key factors driving silver's rise this week was the US Treasury's signal to expand its long-term Treasury repurchase program. The Treasury plans to at least double the size of its long-term debt repurchase program, primarily aimed at improving liquidity in the long-term bond market and controlling financing costs. Following the announcement, US Treasury yields and the dollar initially fell in tandem, reducing the opportunity cost of holding silver, a non-interest-bearing asset. However, the initial reaction in the US Treasury market was not entirely sustained. US long-term Treasury yields subsequently recovered some of their earlier losses, while the dollar continued its weak performance. Elias Haddad, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, believes that long-term Treasury yields have already given back most of the losses triggered by the Treasury's repurchase plan, but the dollar remains weak, indicating that the market is still reassessing the potential impact of US fiscal and debt management policies. From an asset allocation perspective, silver has recently demonstrated strong resilience. Even with a rebound in US yields, silver has continued to rise, indicating that market demand for precious metals is no longer entirely dependent on a single interest rate variable. Increased volatility in global bond and foreign exchange markets, coupled with policy uncertainty, has kept investors highly interested in precious metals with safe-haven properties. However, a significant constraint on continued silver price increases is the persistently high oil price. Tensions between the US and Iran over shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz continue to cause market concerns about oil supply and transportation. Rising energy prices not only increase the risk premium of crude oil itself but may also reignite global inflation expectations. For silver, rising oil prices have a dual impact. On the one hand, increased inflation risk may enhance the attractiveness of precious metals as a safe-haven asset; on the other hand, if energy prices drive inflation to accelerate again, major central banks may be forced to maintain higher interest rates or even reconsider raising rates, which would increase the holding cost of non-interest-bearing silver. Therefore, the current silver market is simultaneously affected by safe-haven demand and interest rate pressures, and its short-term direction depends on which of these two factors dominates. Oil supply risks remain a concern. TD Securities believes that the current oil market supply environment remains tight, with slow progress in related negotiations and increased economic pressure measures suggesting that oil flows may continue to be restricted. If shipping risks related to Iran persist, oil prices may remain high, further increasing uncertainty surrounding global inflation. The US is also preparing to further tighten restrictions on Iran's economic system, with potential measures potentially affecting banks, shipping registration, fund transfers, and related business networks. If these measures further impact crude oil exports and transportation, a supply premium may reappear in the energy market. For silver, this will create a complex situation, supporting safe-haven demand on one hand and raising interest rate expectations on the other. The US dollar's performance is one of the most important short-term indicators for silver. If the dollar continues to weaken, dollar-denominated silver will typically receive additional support, while the cost of purchasing silver for global investors will be relatively lower. Conversely, if US yields continue to rebound and help the dollar stabilize, the recent gains in silver may face profit-taking. From a demand perspective, silver possesses both precious metal and industrial metal attributes, therefore, the global manufacturing climate is equally important. If manufacturing activity improves in the US, Europe, and major Asian economies, industrial demand may provide additional support for silver prices. In the future, investors should pay attention not only to Fed policies, the dollar, and US Treasury yields, but also to changes in global PMI, industrial production, and energy prices. From a daily chart perspective, spot silver has risen for the third consecutive trading day, with prices reaching around $68.70, indicating a significant increase in short-term bullish momentum. The cumulative gain this week is nearly 6%, suggesting that buying power is rapidly pushing prices higher. However, after consecutive gains, the market has entered a relatively high position in the short term, and increased profit-taking could lead to greater volatility. The first resistance level to watch is the psychological barrier of $69.00. A successful break above this level could lead to tests of the $70.00 and $72.00 areas in the next phase. On the downside, the first key support level to watch is around $67.00, followed by the $65.00 and $63.50 areas. As long as silver can maintain above $65, the daily bullish structure remains intact. Looking at the 4-hour chart, silver maintains a clear upward trend with a continuously rising price center in the short term, but a slowdown in momentum should be anticipated after the rapid rise. If the price breaks through $69 and stabilizes above it, the short-term trend could accelerate further, with $70 becoming the first important target. Conversely, if significant selling pressure emerges around $69, silver may first pull back to test the $67 support level; if $67 is breached, it may further adjust towards the $65 level. Currently, the 4-hour chart remains bullish, but it has entered a high-level breakout confirmation phase, and investors should not blindly chase the rally. Editor's Summary: Silver rose nearly 6% this week, with demand for the precious metal rising due to the US Treasury's expansion of its long-term Treasury repurchase program, a weaker dollar, and volatility in global bond markets. Although US Treasury yields have rebounded somewhat, the dollar remains weak, allowing silver to maintain its strong performance. Meanwhile, inflationary risks from rising oil prices may force major central banks to maintain tighter policies, becoming a significant obstacle to further silver price increases. In the short term, $69 is a key breakout level; a break above this level could lead to a test of $70 to $72. If the breakout fails, $67 and $65 will become important support levels. Overall, the trend for silver is bullish, but after a continuous and rapid rise, short-term volatility and the risk of profit-taking are increasing simultaneously.