Next week (August 24-28), the annual Jackson Hole global central bank symposium will officially begin, coinciding with the release of core inflation, employment, and consumption data from Europe and the United States, as well as the earnings reports of tech giants such as Nvidia.

Calendar-style important reminders

Monday (August 24): US Short-Term Treasury Liquidity Focus: US short-term Treasury auction and dollar liquidity. Logic: Observe changes in US Treasury yields and SOFR to guard against fluctuations in the money market. Tuesday (August 25): US and European Employment/Consumption Outlook Focus: US August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, ADP Employment; RBA Meeting Minutes. Logic: Predict US consumption momentum; Barkin's speech warns of potential policy adjustments. Wednesday (August 26): Inflation Surge and Major AI Release Focus : US July PCE/Core PCE Inflation; Australian July CPI; Nvidia earnings report after US market close. Logic: PCE determines the scope for interest rate cuts; Nvidia's performance and CapEx guidance will directly anchor the global AI industry chain trend. Thursday (August 27): Global Central Bank Annual Meeting Opens and Nvidia Chain Resonance Focus : Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Opens; US Initial Jobless Claims; Asian/European session digests Nvidia earnings report. Logic: High-frequency employment data confirms the resilience of the labor market, leading to a sharp repricing in tech stocks at the open. Friday (August 28): The main event – Fed Chair's speech Focus: Fed Chair's first speech at the central bank conference; preliminary revision of the US non-farm payrolls benchmark; Tokyo August CPI. Logic: The Fed Chair's remarks will fundamentally reshape global monetary policy expectations; if the non-farm payrolls benchmark is significantly revised downwards, the recession trade should be watched closely.

As US data begins to emerge, Treasury liquidity draws attention.

Monday (August 24) saw relatively quiet trading, with the focus on two key US indicators. The US will release the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which will help determine the overall strength and contraction of the US economy. Simultaneously, data from the 3-6 month short-term Treasury auction will be released. The yields and subscription rates at these auctions directly reflect the tightness of dollar liquidity, providing direct guidance for short-term interest rates and foreign exchange rates.

Employment and consumption data from Europe and the US have been released, and central bank officials have offered guidance.

On Tuesday (August 25), several global consumption and employment data were released. The US released its weekly ADP employment data and the August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. ADP data is an important leading indicator for non-farm payrolls, while consumer confidence directly reflects residents' willingness to consume and the momentum of economic recovery. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its August monetary policy meeting, maintaining the Australian interest rate at 4.35%. The minutes will reveal future policy inclinations and guide the Australian dollar and commodity price movements. Later in the evening, Richmond Reserve Bank President Barkin, a 2027 FOMC voting member, delivered a keynote speech, whose remarks will likely influence short-term market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

Core inflation data is strong, followed by energy inventory data.

Wednesday (August 26) marks the week's key data release window, with inflation, manufacturing, and energy data all being released. Australia will release its July CPI inflation data, directly determining the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) subsequent interest rate pace and impacting market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region. The US will release its July PCE and core PCE inflation data, as well as durable goods orders data. PCE is a core anchor indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and will directly revise market expectations for interest rate cuts, while durable goods orders reflect US business investment and manufacturing activity. In the energy sector, the API and EIA will release crude oil inventory data, with inventory changes dominating short-term oil price fluctuations. Barkin attended a symposium that day, continuing to release signals related to Federal Reserve policy.

US employment data update, tech giants' earnings reports as the finale, central bank annual meetings begin.

Thursday (August 27) saw the market benefit from a triple catalyst: data, earnings reports, and conferences. The US released initial and continuing jobless claims, with high-frequency employment data confirming the resilience of the US labor market. After the US stock market closed, tech giant Nvidia released its earnings report, and its performance and guidance will directly impact the sentiment of the US tech sector and global risk assets. Meanwhile, the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium officially opened, with central bank officials from numerous countries participating, laying the groundwork for future global policy pronouncements.

Global economic data releases conclude, with the Federal Reserve's major debut as the finale.

On Friday (August 28), economic data from multiple countries worldwide concluded, culminating in the central bank symposium, and the release of key revised US employment data. Japan released its August Tokyo CPI and July unemployment rate, impacting the yen and Asian markets; the Eurozone released its August consumption, economic, and industrial sentiment indicators, influencing ECB policy expectations. The US released a series of key data, including the preliminary estimate of the 2026 non-farm payroll baseline change, which will correct past employment data biases, reshape market perceptions of the true tightness of the US labor market, and influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. The US also released its August Chicago PMI, Michigan consumer confidence, and final inflation expectations, providing a comprehensive review of the current state of the US economy and inflation. The biggest highlight of the week is Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's first speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, whose policy and economic outlook will reshape global market expectations and set the tone for this round of central bank symposiums and subsequent market trends (the symposium will be held from August 27-29).

Risk warning: Data and policy variables require close monitoring.

In addition to core economic data and major events, investors should be wary of three potential risks: First, there is a possibility that statements from officials at the Jackson Hole symposium could lead to an unexpected policy shift. If the Fed Chair's first speech at the symposium deviates from market expectations, it could trigger significant volatility in the stock, currency, and commodity markets. Second, Nvidia's earnings report may fall short of expectations, potentially causing a correction in the US technology sector and suppressing global risk asset sentiment. Third, unexpected fluctuations in inflation and employment data in Europe and the US could quickly revise expectations for Fed policy, triggering short-term market volatility.