On Friday (August 21), spot gold and silver prices surged during the early US trading session. A weaker dollar, cooling market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike, and concerns about US fiscal policy fueled a breakout in precious metals. Spot gold traded around $4,582.14 per ounce, up 1.4% on the day; spot silver was quoted at $69.357, up 1.88% on the day. The market remains divided between bulls and bears: on the one hand, US economic growth data is weakening, while on the other hand, inflationary risks from oil prices and persistently high long-term yields persist. Last week's cooling CPI data, flat overall PPI, weak retail sales, and weakening consumer confidence lowered market expectations for another rate hike in September. Although previously released data showed that initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 47.4, the labor market and regional manufacturing activity did not show substantial weakness. The Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed that several officials stated they were prepared to continue raising rates if inflation failed to fall; however, traders still tend to believe the Fed will keep rates unchanged next month. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is trading around 4.7%, the yield on the 30-year Treasury note is close to 5.25%, and the dollar index has fallen below the 99.00 level. The next key macroeconomic data release is the preliminary US PMI reading, due at 9:45 AM ET. Gold and silver have been standout performers across asset classes. Gold has broken through the $4,447 level, which had previously been a support level, and is now above $4,500, testing the resistance level at $4,595. Silver has broken through $66.55 and $68.02, and is now challenging the next resistance level at $69.48, with prices near this week's highs. This rally cannot be simply attributed to declining yields: even with long-term yields remaining high, precious metals are still strong, indicating that fiscal risk hedging, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical safe-haven demand have offset the negative impact of high interest rates on holding costs. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical variable affecting crude oil, inflation expectations, and safe-haven buying. With US-Iran negotiations stalled and Washington threatening harsher economic sanctions against Tehran, the volume of commodity ships passing through the strait is far below normal levels. Only seven commodity tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, half the number from the previous day; multiple reports indicate that overall traffic volume is also only a fraction of pre-war levels. Brent crude oil traded around $93.45 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was around $86.53. For gold, the overall environment is supportive but contradictory: disruptions to Gulf shipping and a weaker dollar boosted safe-haven buying, but high oil prices continue to push up inflation risks, limiting the downside for yields. Before the US stock market opened, global markets were mixed. Following Thursday's sell-off, US stock index futures strengthened, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, Dow Jones futures up 0.4%, and NYMEX futures up 0.6%. In European markets, the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.1%, the FTSE 40 was essentially flat, and the German DAX 40 rose 0.2%. In Asian markets, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.3%, the South Korean KOSPI rose 0.9%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.2%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly, by less than 0.1%. Other major overseas markets: WTI crude oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell slightly to $86.53 per barrel, while Brent crude oil approached $93.45. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note remained around 4.7%, and the U.S. dollar index weakened. Technical Analysis (Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678) Spot Gold: The next upside target for bulls is to hold above the $4595.00 resistance level. A successful break above this level would target $4671.00, then $4778.00. The short-term bearish target is to push the price below $4447.00, with further downside targets at $4320.00, then $4228.00. First resistance level: $4595.00, then $4671.00; first support level: $4447.00, then $4320.00. Spot Silver: The next upside target for bulls is to hold above $69.48, with a potential move towards $71.03 after a break above this level. The downside target for bears is to push the price below $68.02, then further down to $66.55, then $64.20. The first resistance level is $69.48, followed by $71.03; the first support level is $68.02, followed by $66.55.