On Thursday (August 27, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,620 per ounce. Gold prices fell on Wednesday as US PCE data met expectations, boosting bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Profit-taking by some investors limited gains as gold approached the $4,700 per ounce level. US crude oil was trading around $81.83 per barrel. Oil prices fell on Wednesday as markets anticipated increased shipping volumes and a reduction in geopolitical premiums following negotiations between Iran and Oman on details of a Strait of Hormuz agreement.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks edged lower on Wednesday after strong inflation data was released, with traders remaining cautious ahead of Nvidia's after-hours earnings report: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.21% to 53,463.88, the S&P 500 dipped 0.02% to 7,675.70, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.08% to 26,130.20. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, well above the Federal Reserve's target. Investors focused on how Chairman Warsh would reconcile his patient interest rate policy with the 2% inflation target, which pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.185%, the 10-year yield to 4.663%, and the 2-year yield to 4.222%. In individual stocks, Nvidia fell 1.6% to $209.66 ahead of earnings, as hedge funds questioned its debt burden; Meta Platforms rose 1.1% to $576.14 after agreeing to an $18 billion settlement with 48 states; Abercrombie & Fitch surged 36% to $147.75 (hitting a 52-week high intraday) due to tariff rebates and strong demand; Revolution Medicines rose 1.9% to $215.44 (more than double this year) after receiving FDA approval for its oral pancreatic cancer drug; in addition, Vanguard Group completed a $4 billion deal to acquire financial technology platform Altruist to expand its products for financial advisors.

Gold Market

Spot gold fell 1.38% on Wednesday to settle at $4,594.16 an ounce, as the U.S. July PCE price index rose 3.7% year-on-year (slightly higher than the expected 3.6%) and was largely in line with expectations. This pushed market bets on a Fed rate hike next month up from 36% before the data release to 40%. The dollar strengthened in tandem, putting pressure on gold. Gold prices also faced profit-taking pressure after hitting their highest level since May 14 on Tuesday. Zaner Metals analysts say gold's upward trend is being re-established, with a potential return above $5,000 this year and a new high before the second quarter of 2027. Geopolitically, a senior Iranian source said Iran and Oman are still negotiating the details of a Strait of Hormuz agreement, after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that the two sides had reached an agreement on sharing the waterway and revenue.

oil market

Oil prices closed lower on Wednesday after volatile trading. Brent crude fell 0.3% to settle at $86.52 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 0.99% to settle at $81.91 a barrel. However, both indices fell to their lowest levels since August 10 during the session due to news of negotiations between Iran and Oman on details of a Strait of Hormuz agreement. WTI crude even broke below the $80 a barrel mark as the market anticipated increased shipping volumes and a fading geopolitical premium. Subsequently, the decline narrowed as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude oil inventories increased by only 95,000 barrels last week (far below the expected 597,000 barrels). A senior Iranian source confirmed that the two countries are discussing details of a Straits agreement. This comes after the Revolutionary Guard stated that an agreement had been reached on sharing the waterway and revenue. Ship tracking data showed that only five commodity ships passed through the waterway on Tuesday (down from the 10-day average of 15). Meanwhile, Pakistan and Qatar are also actively pushing for negotiations to de-escalate the conflict with Iran. In Russia, the Ukrainian drone attack forced NORSI, Russia's fourth-largest oil refinery, to suspend crude oil processing, prompting Russia to consider increasing missile strikes. US senators are also pushing for sanctions against Russia.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index rose 0.23% to 99.11 on Wednesday, its biggest one-day gain since August 6, as the U.S. July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.7% year-on-year (slightly higher than the expected 3.6%) and 0.2% month-on-month (expected 0.1%). Meanwhile, the revised annualized rate of GDP growth for the second quarter remained flat at 1.5%, personal income rose 0.4% in July (higher than the expected 0.2%), and consumer spending remained flat in June. This series of data slightly increased market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September from about 36% before the data release to 40.1%. However, Convera strategists said that the inflationary pressures are not yet enough for hawks to achieve a clear victory, and the direction of the currency market is currently difficult to predict due to multiple narratives. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Executive Board member Schnabel stated in an interview that interest rates must be further raised to address inflation risks from the Middle East conflict and the strong Eurozone economy, causing the euro to fall 0.18% against the dollar to 1.1653. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will speak for the first time at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday; Goldman Sachs expects him to reiterate the 2% inflation target but is unlikely to provide specific policy guidance. The pound fell 0.41% against the dollar to 1.3593 (its biggest one-day drop since July 23), the dollar rose 0.13% against the yen to 159.37, the dollar rose 0.29% against the Canadian dollar to 1.3876 (reversing the previous day's gains after Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the US took effect), and the Australian dollar edged up 0.10% against the dollar to 0.7167. Furthermore, Barclays' month-end rebalancing model indicates a mild sell signal for the dollar against all major currencies.

International News

Trump: No Timetable for Iran's Return to Negotiations US President Donald Trump stated in an interview with Al Jazeera on the 26th that he has "no timetable" for when Iran is expected to return to negotiations and is "not in a hurry." According to Al Jazeera's report on the 26th, when asked how much time he would give Iran to return to negotiations, Trump replied, "I have no timetable, absolutely none. I'm not in a hurry." He also said, "We are making very big wins. They (Iran) are facing severe inflation, their economy is collapsing." When asked if economic measures were more effective than military strikes, Trump said, "I think both are effective." (Xinhua) Iranian Official: Inspections of All Attacked Nuclear Facilities Must Be Approved by Iranian Parliament On the 26th local time, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Eslami, stated that any inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of any nuclear facility attacked by military force must be approved by the Iranian parliament and have corresponding regulations established. He stated that all Iranian nuclear facilities attacked by military force had previously been registered with and inspected by the IAEA. The agency's failure to condemn these attacks has cast doubt on its capabilities and independence. The US and Israel pressured the IAEA to visit the damaged Iranian nuclear facilities in order to assess the results of the US-Israeli military strikes. Iran will not accept the agency's request to inspect these facilities until a security charter stipulated by Iranian parliament law is enacted. Trump Signs Executive Order Banning Certain Foreign Energy Equipment from Connecting to the US Grid US President Trump signed an emergency executive order citing national security reasons, banning certain foreign-made transformers and other critical energy equipment from connecting to the US power grid. The executive order prohibits the US from purchasing or installing specific foreign-made power equipment that poses cybersecurity or operational risks. The executive order requires the US Department of Energy to issue supporting regulatory rules within 120 days and authorizes the Secretary of Energy to impose restrictions on equipment already in use to mitigate related security risks. Iranian Vice President: Iran Cannot Import Gasoline Due to US Naval Blockade Iran's First Vice President, Mohammad Jafar Gaimpana, stated that due to the US naval blockade, Iran cannot import gasoline and warned that the current fuel situation is unsustainable. "Continuing like this is not feasible," Gaimpana said, adding that domestic gasoline production is insufficient, and "under the US naval blockade, we cannot import gasoline." He also stated that military force should be used to promote the implementation of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding. Ghampana stated that, under the guidance of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Iran and Oman reached a joint statement on Tuesday requiring ships to use the routes specified in the memorandum and not to cross the border in the southern waters of Oman. Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not open if the United States does not accept its conditions. On August 26th local time, a spokesperson for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the Strait of Hormuz belongs to both Iran and Oman. About a month ago, Iran and Oman began negotiations and reached an agreement acceptable to both sides. The spokesperson stated that during these negotiations, the parties reached an agreement on the share of waters in the Strait of Hormuz and the respective revenue shares that Iran and Oman should receive. The United States has obstructed this work, causing delays in the process. If the United States abandons its obstruction and renews its understanding, Iran can open the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of the already reached understanding; therefore, the United States must accept Iran's conditions. If the United States does not accept Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not open under any circumstances. The spokesperson also stated that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iranian control, and there are no enemy warships in the Persian Gulf. All enemy warships are located at least 400 kilometers away from the Strait of Hormuz, and no vessel can pass through the strait without Iranian permission. (CCTV News) The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September is 36.5%, and the probability of at least one rate hike this year is 72.7%. According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 63.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 36.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 47.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 43.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 9.3%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 27.3%, and the probability of at least a rate hike of 25 basis points is 72.7%.

Domestic News

State Grid Corporation of China Successfully Issues First "New Grid" Special Science and Technology Innovation Bond in China, Worth 10 Billion Yuan Recently, State Grid Corporation of China successfully issued the first "New Grid" special bond in the entire market on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with an issuance scale of 10 billion yuan, breaking the market record for the largest single issuance scale of 30-year corporate bonds. This bond is the company's first attempt at issuing 30-year bonds domestically, with an issuance interest rate of 2.30%, about 3 basis points lower than the valuation of bonds with the same maturity, setting a record for the lowest issuance interest rate for bonds with the same maturity issued by central enterprises this year. The subscription multiple reached 3.13 times, the highest total subscription for bonds with the same maturity this year, reflecting the capital market's full recognition of the company's sovereign credit rating. After listing, the bond will be included in the benchmark market-making bond scope of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, providing a standardized and comparable long-term fixed-price reference for the market credit system, further improving the credit market pricing benchmark system and enhancing the market price discovery efficiency. (State Grid) Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Accelerating the Planning and Construction of Next-Generation Communication and Computing Networks, Strengthening 6G Technology R&D A relevant official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced the relevant situation regarding the full implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the acceleration of new industrialization. At the press conference, it was stated that efforts will be focused on promoting the high-quality development of the information and communication industry, accelerating the planning and construction of next-generation communication and computing networks, promoting the large-scale application of 5G and the industrial internet in key industries, strengthening 6G technology R&D, enhancing network and data security capabilities, and consolidating and enhancing the competitive advantages and leading position of the information and communication industry. (CCTV News)