On Friday, August 28th, the focus of US macroeconomic trading shifted from "whether consumption is growing" to "what is supporting consumption growth." Retail and restaurant sales fell 0.6% month-over-month in July, but still grew 5.0% year-over-year; meanwhile, nominal personal consumption expenditures rose only 0.2% month-over-month in July, with real personal consumption expenditures essentially flat. Second-quarter real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.5%, lower than the 2.1% in the first quarter. Growth has not been interrupted, but increasingly obvious stratification is emerging within consumption. July retail and restaurant sales totaled $763.6 billion, down 0.6% month-over-month, contrasting with the 0.2% growth in June. However, a single month's decline is not enough to prove a fundamental change in the consumption cycle, as sales from May to July still grew 6.3% year-over-year. What truly needs to be distinguished is nominal growth versus real purchasing power. Personal income rose 0.4% month-over-month in July, disposable personal income rose 0.5%, and nominal personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2%, but real consumption, adjusted for price factors, barely increased. During the same period, the personal consumption expenditure price index rose 3.7% year-on-year, and the core index rose 3.3% year-on-year, both significantly higher than the long-term inflation target of 2%. In other words, while the book value of current consumption is still expanding, a considerable portion of this expansion is driven by price increases rather than a sustained increase in the actual quantity purchased. This explains why macro-level consumption and micro-level business sentiment can coexist. The latest quarterly data from major retailers shows that comparable sales in the US grew by 2.6%, or 3.4% excluding healthcare factors. While the growth rate isn't bad, it's significantly more moderate compared to previous periods of stronger consumption. Meanwhile, membership-based businesses have shown relative resilience, reflecting the varying spending power across different income groups. The most important question now isn't whether consumption has increased, but rather the balance sheet status of households to sustain it. Personal savings in July totaled $712 billion, with a savings rate of only 3.0%. Despite a 0.5% increase in disposable income and a 0.2% increase in nominal consumption, monthly cash flow didn't deteriorate further, but the 3% savings rate itself indicates a thin buffer for households. A low savings rate won't immediately lead to a contraction in consumption, but it will reduce households' ability to buffer against changes in employment, interest rates, healthcare, and housing costs. Therefore, focusing solely on a 5.0% year-on-year increase in retail sales can easily overestimate the true comfort level of the household sector. Sustaining consumption and easily sustaining consumption are two completely different macroeconomic states. Total household debt in the second quarter was approximately $18.8 trillion. Credit card balances increased by $21 billion to $1.26 trillion, and auto loan balances increased by $28 billion to $1.71 trillion. The overall delinquency rate was 4.7%, a slight improvement from the previous quarter, but the proportion of newly added serious delinquencies in credit card debt was 6.97%, and in auto loans, it was 3.00%. This data suggests that US consumers are not experiencing a comprehensive credit deterioration, but rather exhibiting typical characteristics of marginal pressure: the overall amount is still manageable, but vulnerable groups are bearing the brunt, and credit instruments continue to play a role in smoothing consumption. Nominal personal consumption expenditures increased by $36.3 billion in July, but the structure is crucial: service spending increased by $86.2 billion, while goods spending decreased by $49.9 billion. Actual consumption remained almost unchanged overall. Therefore, the growth in service consumption cannot be simply interpreted as residents actively increasing spending on enjoyment. Housing, utilities, healthcare, insurance, and some financial services are relatively inelastic; when prices rise in these areas, they mechanically increase nominal consumption amounts, but this does not necessarily mean a corresponding increase in residents' disposable income. This explains a seemingly contradictory phenomenon: while macro personal consumption expenditures continue to grow, some retail, catering, and everyday consumer businesses are feeling sales pressure. Households are still spending money, but increasingly it's flowing into mandatory services rather than discretionary goods. This consumption structure is more important for macro-pricing than simple retail sales data. Because inelastic service spending is less price-sensitive, it can support nominal consumption while potentially squeezing out other consumption categories, making overall growth appear stable but with declining internal quality. The current macroeconomic mix is not simple. Second-quarter real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.5%, indicating continued economic expansion; July personal income grew by 0.4%, and disposable income by 0.5%, showing no significant break. However, the overall personal consumption expenditure price index remained at 3.7% year-on-year, with the core indicator at 3.3%, while real personal consumption essentially stagnated in July. This means policy discussions cannot be simply summarized as "strong consumption necessitates tightening" or "weak consumption necessitates easing." More importantly, it's crucial to determine whether current inflation stems from demand expansion or the stickiness of housing, healthcare, insurance, energy, and other service prices, and how low a savings rate households can maintain the current consumption structure.