With the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium approaching, the dollar's trajectory is shrouded in uncertainty: the continued rise in international oil prices provides some support for the dollar, but if the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury implement coordinated policies, it may significantly limit the dollar's upside potential. The market is closely watching Kevin Warsh's speech, hoping to glean key clues about inflation trends and the future direction of US Treasury yields. If the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department coordinate their policy efforts, the US dollar is likely to weaken. Against the backdrop of rising oil prices and US Treasury yields, the performance of various dollar currency pairs has diverged, with both gains and losses. Meanwhile, Nvidia's leading position in the S&P 500 index has significantly boosted global market risk appetite, cooling demand for safe-haven assets and directly weakening the dollar's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset. Before Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, most investors chose to wait and see, unwilling to make large-scale positions in advance. The optimism surrounding oil prices previously fueled by the prospect of a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually fading. Iran is making several significant demands on Oman, while the US is criticizing related measures already implemented by Oman. The White House has consistently stated that it has neither engaged in nor planned any negotiations with Iran and will continue its economic blockade. Brent crude oil prices have rebounded again, reigniting market concerns about a renewed acceleration in inflation, which in turn has pushed up US Treasury yields. It's worth noting that if Kevin Warsh's theory holds true—that the debt market itself can substitute for the Federal Reserve in policy adjustments—then rising Treasury yields would reduce the probability of further tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. Conversely, if Treasury yields fall, it could prompt the Fed to consider implementing tightening policies. Once the Treasury's policy actions are incorporated into the overall logical framework, the entire macroeconomic situation will become more complex. Scott Bessant's desire to lower interest rates on various debt instruments may strengthen the hawkish camp within the Federal Open Market Committee. Investors are awaiting a clear explanation from Kevin Warsh regarding the US Treasury market, the Fed's balance sheet planning, and the Fed's core policy approach to inflation. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley believe that Fed officials are likely to effectively convey policy signals to the market. If their statements fail to dispel market doubts and expectations fail to be guided, the dollar will come under direct downward pressure. The Citrini Institute suggests that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department may form a policy alliance: the Fed would continue selling Treasury bonds to banks, advancing the balance sheet reduction process; the Treasury would proactively reduce the issuance of long-term Treasury bonds, driving down long-term Treasury yields. As this policy combination is implemented, the dollar will gradually weaken, which is one of the policy objectives set by the White House. This dollar depreciation is welcomed by Japan. Previously, joint US-Japan currency intervention pushed the dollar-yen exchange rate away from its 40-year high. However, the intervention did not eliminate fundamental contradictions: the persistent interest rate differential between the two central banks, persistently high international oil prices, and US Treasury yields remain the core variables supporting the dollar-yen exchange rate. Driven by fundamental factors, the dollar-yen exchange rate is attempting to retest the key 160 yen level.