On Monday (August 31), spot gold prices fell during the early US trading session, while spot silver remained relatively firm. Traders assessed the increased probability of a Fed rate hike in September, while also weighing the safe-haven buying driven by renewed escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, renewed oil price volatility was observed in the Strait of Hormuz, creating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading around $4419.67 per ounce, down 0.82%; spot silver was quoted at $66.451 per ounce, up 0.12% on the day. Current market pricing is primarily driven by the hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and the dense array of economic data this week. Influenced by Warsh's speech last Friday, the two-year Treasury yield rose nearly 12 basis points, and market futures pricing on Monday indicated a near 60% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. The two-year Treasury yield fell back to approximately 4.325% in early trading on Monday, but this pullback only slightly digested Friday's gains and did not reverse the upward trend. A series of key data releases will test the direction of interest rates: Tuesday's JOLTS job openings data and ISM Manufacturing PMI; Wednesday's ADP employment report (non-farm payrolls); Thursday's initial jobless claims and ISM Services PMI; and Friday's August non-farm payrolls report. Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between interest rate shocks and geopolitical safe-haven buying. Gold prices were sold off last Friday, falling below the 200-day moving average, with the technical outlook re-establishing $4396 as a key level to watch; however, renewed geopolitical risks in the Gulf region on Monday limited further declines in gold prices. Silver rebounded from the support range of $65.63-$65.64, showing relatively strong momentum, but the price remains below short-term moving averages. If the bulls cannot break through the resistance zone of $67.75-$68.40, this rebound still risks faltering. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical variable affecting oil prices, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand. On Sunday, the US military struck Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait, marking the first US military action in nearly a month and breaking the brief calm in this conflict that has lasted for over six months. Affected by the repricing of the risk of escalation, crude oil surged by over 3%, with Brent crude approaching $91 per barrel and US crude at around $86.40 per barrel. Gold is currently in a contradictory position: a new round of military conflict could boost safe-haven buying, but higher oil prices could push up inflation, reinforcing market arguments for another Fed rate hike. Before the US stock market opened, global stock markets weakened overall. S&P 500 futures and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.2%, and the New York Composite Index fell 0.1%. In European markets, the German DAX 40 index fell 0.8%, while the pan-European F40 index declined slightly; the UK market was closed for a bank holiday. Asian stock markets were mixed, with investors weighing rising oil prices, the risk of a Fed rate hike, and this week's labor market data calendar. Key external markets: New York WTI crude oil strengthened, trading around $86.40 per barrel; Brent crude oil was around $91.10 per barrel; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hovered around 4.7%; the US dollar index fluctuated. Technical Analysis The next upside target for spot gold bulls is to push the price above the resistance level of $4487.00. A successful break above this level would target $4515.00, followed by $4543.00. The short-term downside target for bears is to push the price below $4396.00, with a further target of $4341.00. The first resistance level is $4452.00, followed by $4487.00; the first support level is $4396.00, followed by $4341.00. The next upside target for spot silver bulls is to push the price above $67.75, with a break above this level targeting $68.40, followed by $69.05. The downside target for bears is to push the price below $66.94, with a deeper downside target of $65.64, followed by $65.60. The first resistance level is $67.75, followed by $68.40; the first support level is $66.94, followed by $65.64.