The recent surge in Brent crude oil prices not only reflects a premium for geopolitical risks but also exacerbates market concerns about accelerating inflation at the macro level, thus forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy response. As the conflict enters a new and more unpredictable phase, the energy market is reassessing the potential duration and severity of supply disruptions, providing solid support for oil prices. This concern is directly reflected in financial markets: US Treasury yields have risen, the dollar index has strengthened, and risk assets have generally come under pressure. The US dollar index has surged to a two-week high, fueled by a confluence of positive factors. Strong macroeconomic data has provided fundamental support for the dollar, while recent hawkish comments from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials have further reinforced market expectations for tightening policies. Furthermore, the continued rise in US Treasury yields and the increase in oil prices themselves constitute the "three driving forces" propelling the dollar's rise. The dollar benefits not only from its safe-haven asset status amid escalating Middle East conflicts—investors seeking safe havens during turbulent times—but also from its status as a high-yield currency. Moreover, the US is a major net exporter of energy commodities, and high oil prices are beneficial to its terms of trade and current account. Adding fuel to the dollar index's rise is the continued expansion of US manufacturing business activity. Latest data shows that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has remained above the 50-point threshold for the eighth consecutive month, indicating strong resilience in the industrial sector. Of particular note is that the August PMI reading recorded the second-best performance since 2022, significantly alleviating market concerns about a potential US recession. Meanwhile, FOMC Governor Mark Barr explicitly stated that if inflation fails to slow further in the near term, interest rates should be raised further. This statement immediately boosted market expectations for a Fed tightening monetary policy at its September meeting to 68%. This significant jump not only accelerated the rise in US Treasury yields but also injected strong momentum into the dollar's upward trend. However, the selling pressure in the bond market is not solely due to expectations of high inflation and central bank rate hikes. A significant structural factor is that US Treasury bonds are facing fierce competition from the corporate sector, particularly from "mega-corporations" issuing large amounts of corporate bonds to raise funds. The massive financing needs of these tech giants are diverting funds from the bond market, further pushing up overall yield levels. At the same time, the rise in Brent crude oil prices has also contributed to the upward movement of Treasury yields through inflation expectations. Although former President Trump emphasized that a large amount of oil shipments must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and Bessant predicted that this crucial global shipping route would become "worthless" within two years, the market seems to have paid little attention to these statements. Investors' core concern right now lies in the fact that the current tensions in the Middle East are increasingly escalating into a protracted armed conflict that is unlikely to be resolved quickly through diplomatic means. This deep concern about persistent supply disruptions has kept the risk premium in Brent crude futures high, becoming a key structural factor supporting the continued strength of oil prices. In other words, the market is pricing in geopolitical risks of "longer duration and higher intensity." From a practical transportation perspective, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz remains irreplaceable in the short term. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil are currently transported daily through the strait to the global market. In addition, approximately 4 to 5 million barrels of crude oil are transported daily via alternative routes through Gulf countries (such as overland pipelines). If the strait is blocked, even with alternative routes as a buffer, the global crude oil supply will still face a shortfall of at least several million barrels per day, which would undoubtedly be devastating to the supply-demand balance. Ultimately, the higher the Brent crude oil price, and the longer North Sea crude oil remains at such high levels, the greater the risk of the "second-order effect" of its transmission to core inflation through energy costs. This chain reaction will put greater pressure on the Federal Reserve in the final stages of combating inflation, ultimately forcing it to maintain or even strengthen its tight monetary policy stance. Market expectations for such a policy outcome in September are growing daily, and this expectation itself is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that pushes up Treasury yields and the dollar exchange rate. Against this intertwined macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, oil prices reaching triple digits no longer seems a distant prospect.