Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated recently, entering their seventh month. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has publicly signaled that an agreement to limit Iran's nuclear weapons development may never be reached, and that the U.S. is shifting towards a hardline approach focused on destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran has issued strong threats, and the competition between the two sides in the military, economic, and energy spheres is deepening, causing instability in global energy markets. These statements and actions not only reveal the complexity of the current conflict but also foreshadow a potentially more severe future.

Wright states: Nuclear agreement prospects are bleak; destructive capabilities become the priority.

In a media interview, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright offered a pessimistic assessment of the U.S.-Iran nuclear issue. He pointed out that as the conflict continues to deepen, the U.S. may find it difficult to reach any agreement with Iran on limiting its acquisition of nuclear weapons. Wright stated in the program that an agreement may never materialize, and the only solution might be to directly destroy Iran's ability to achieve its nuclear goals. A truly meaningful negotiated agreement might have to wait until the next Iranian government takes office, and the situation remains highly uncertain. This statement aligns closely with the core objective consistently emphasized by the Trump administration. Trump has repeatedly stated that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is the top priority of U.S. action. Although the U.S. has continuously sought to reach an agreement through negotiations throughout the conflict, the war has led to a significant increase in global energy prices, continuously narrowing the space for negotiation. Wright's remarks further suggest that the U.S. government may no longer consider a negotiated agreement a necessary condition, but rather continue to pursue its strategy of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons even without an agreement. When pressed on whether this meant the U.S. would continue to strike Iran if it attempted to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure, Wright clearly responded that the U.S. must destroy its ability to do so. He emphasized that the United States is weakening Iran's ability to develop and ultimately deliver nuclear weapons—a long-term effort spanning 47 years. While not easy, the US will complete this task in close cooperation with regional allies. Later, in another program, Wright was again asked about this position. He stated that President Trump has always preferred to resolve issues through negotiation and will not easily resort to military means unless absolutely necessary. At the same time, he pointed out that the primary role of the current US military force in the region is to prevent any Iranian oil or related products and natural gas exports, thereby crippling the Iranian economy to force the current regime to change its policies or even bring about regime change.

Iran responds strongly: The rules of the game have changed; economic pressure and military threats coexist.

Faced with continued pressure from the United States, Iran has also released a strong signal. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and Senior Negotiator, stated that Iran's proportionate response to the US attacks is over, while acknowledging the severe impact of the war on the domestic economy. He warned that if the other side still doesn't understand, it should realize as soon as possible that the rules of the game have completely changed. From now on, any actions that infringe upon Iran's interests and security will be met with a faster, heavier, and more painful response. However, Ghalibaf also acknowledged that, in addition to the military conflict, Iran is facing severe economic pressure. Sharp currency fluctuations, high inflation, unemployment, and market management difficulties are all placing a heavy burden on people's livelihoods. He emphasized the need for further reliance on domestic production and the development of short- and long-term solutions using technological means. These statements came as the US military had just struck three Iranian oil tankers. US Central Command confirmed that one oil tanker was permanently disabled near Hargh Island, another near Jask, and a third tanker was attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Meanwhile, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, revealed that Tehran plans to declare a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz, encompassing parts of the Gulf. Central Command stated that these actions were retaliation for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) ballistic missile strikes on two naval vessels in the region. A US aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer successfully evaded multiple attacks, with no US personnel injured. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of Central Command, explicitly warned that if the IRGC fired on US ships, the US would impose a higher economic cost, destroying three Iranian oil tankers, and would not hesitate to defend US forces, even destroying Iran's limited and exposed oil convoy if necessary. Defense Secretary Peter Hegses also publicly emphasized that if Iran fired on US ships, the US would destroy and sink its oil tankers, and the consequences would be avoided simply by ceasing fire. As OPEC's third-largest oil producer, Iran exported approximately 90% of its crude oil through Hargh Island before the war. Since the US began its blockade of Iranian oil exports in mid-April, these flows have been severely disrupted. The conflict effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial pre-war waterway for global oil supplies, and began with airstrikes by the United States and Israel on February 28. Trump had threatened to seize Hargh Island in June and continued military strikes against Iran, even releasing an AI-generated video on August 31 showing Hargh Island destroyed, further escalating tensions.

Sanctions are tightening, with economic strangulation and military action proceeding simultaneously.

The day before the tanker strikes, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against a small Turkish investment bank and its two subsidiaries, accusing them of facilitating financing for a branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guard. These measures are part of a broader sanctions package launched by the Trump administration in late August, targeting Iran's access to digital assets, advanced technology, gold reserves, commercial aviation, and shipping. Iranian President Masoud Pezehikian admitted late last month that the country's trade had declined sharply. The World Bank estimates that Iran's GDP contracted by 2.7% in the year ending in March, due to economic disruptions caused by last year's large-scale protests and escalating regional hostilities. Inflation surged to 62.2% in February, with food price inflation reaching a record high of 99%. An Iranian official reportedly estimated that the war has resulted in the loss of approximately one million jobs. The combined economic pressures and military conflict have exacerbated the situation in Iran. In summary, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright's statements clearly indicate that the U.S. is shifting from a negotiation-first approach to a strategy that combines capability destruction with economic sanctions, making the prospects for a nuclear agreement increasingly bleak. While issuing strong military warnings, Iran is also facing the dual pressures of internal economic difficulties and external sanctions. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the continued tanker attacks, the expansion of sanctions, and the uncompromising stances of both sides have made the protracted nature of this conflict increasingly apparent. How the US-Iran rivalry evolves will not only affect regional security and global energy supply but may also profoundly influence the direction of the international political landscape. With the space for negotiation constantly shrinking, whether the two sides will escalate into a more intense confrontation remains to be seen. At 07:52 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $92.12 per barrel.