On Tuesday (September 8, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,412 per ounce. Gold prices were under pressure on Monday as a strong US jobs report released on Friday reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, pushing up bond yields, and trading volume was low due to the US holiday. US crude oil rose more than 1%, trading around $92.60 per barrel. Oil prices rose to a six-week high on Monday as the situation in the Middle East deteriorated sharply, with Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stating that further US attacks on its assets would damage the entire Middle East's energy infrastructure.

Key Focus Today

Gold Market

Gold prices fell slightly on Monday, with spot gold closing at $4,406.67 per ounce, down 0.56%, mainly due to the strong U.S. jobs report released on Friday (with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%), which strengthened market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16, pushing up bond yields and putting pressure on gold and silver. Trading volume was also lower due to the U.S. holiday. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that gold prices found buying support below $4,400, a level well above the key support level of around $4,320, but resistance persists above $4,500. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders expect the probability of an interest rate hike next week to rise from 50% before the data release to 60%. Investors are awaiting the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) this Thursday and Friday, respectively, to further assess the policy outlook. Meanwhile, market concerns about inflation have intensified due to the mutual attacks between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf and Iran's plan to establish a new restricted navigation zone, leading to rising oil prices. Although gold is generally considered an inflation hedge, rising interest rates will diminish its appeal. Furthermore, US President Trump stated last Friday that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates as he demands, the US will cease trade with countries with which it has a trade deficit. In other precious metals, spot silver rose slightly by 0.1% to $66.14, platinum rose by 0.5% to $1,827, and palladium rose by 0.2% to $1,389.72.

oil market

Oil prices rose to a six-week high on Monday, with Brent crude up 1.46% to $97.23 a barrel (reaching a new high of $98.03 since July 24) and WTI crude up 1.62% to $92.70 (also hitting a high of $93.29 since July 24), mainly due to the sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf explicitly stated that further US attacks on Iranian assets would cripple the entire Middle East's energy infrastructure, responding to US Defense Secretary Hergses' earlier warning that Iran's tanker fleet was "completely defenseless." Maritime news agency Marisks pointed out that the weekend's mutual attacks on tankers and warships by the US and Iran marked a significant escalation of the conflict, with commercial tankers being deliberately used as a tool of economic pressure, drastically blurring the lines between military confrontation and commercial shipping, severely impacting global oil supplies and forcing countries to deplete their inventories. Data from Kpler shows that in the past 10 days, only 10 commodity carriers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily on average, the lowest since May. Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market analysis at Phillip Nova, stated that if tanker shipping slows significantly, the market may factor in a larger-scale supply shock risk. Goldman Sachs warned that if shipping attacks increase further, oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel. In addition, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said that a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz will be announced in the coming days, and an advisor to the UAE president said that the country is building alternative channels to ensure that shipping routes are not affected by war. Meanwhile, OPEC+ maintained its October production policy at its meeting last Sunday, pending an agreement on new quotas before deciding on the next steps.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index came under pressure on Monday, closing at 98.91. Following the strong non-farm payrolls data, the market awaits the US CPI data to be released on Friday, which will determine whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September. Traders currently expect a rate hike probability of about 60%. Haddad, head of strategy at BBH, said that if the CPI is strong, it will almost certainly lock in a rate hike and support the dollar, while if it is moderate, the dollar may weaken due to dovish repricing. The yen surged to a seven-month high on Monday, with the dollar falling 1.22% against the yen to 154.24, breaking below its August low. This was primarily driven by market bets that the Bank of Japan would accelerate its monetary tightening (75% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September meeting, and 60% probability of another hike before December). Meanwhile, new positive factors such as capital inflows, carry trade unwinding, and US political pressure prompted short-selling speculators to reassess their long-term strategies. Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Hardman noted that a break above 155 was a key bullish signal that could push the yen further higher, while the euro also fell 1% against the yen to 179.5. Standard Chartered analyst Robertsen warned that the yen's "strong breakout" is threatening this year's high-performing carry trades, and continued strength could trigger changes in asset allocation. On Monday, the pound rose 0.2% against the dollar to 1.3540 and edged higher against the euro to 0.8586, but fell sharply by 0.8% against the yen to 209.41, its lowest level since February. Chancellor of the Exchequer Healy delivered his first major economic policy speech since taking office, announcing greater authority for urban districts to attract private investment, emphasizing fiscal discipline, and curbing rising costs. However, much of the content continued the policy direction of his predecessor, failing to provide a clear direction for the pound's movement. Nevertheless, the pound's strength at least partially halted last week's losses against the euro and the dollar. Barclays analysts pointed out that after the August off-season, the market is focusing more on UK policy and economic fundamentals, and rising global yields and the approaching October budget are tilting the risk-reward ratio of the pound to the downside.

International News

Trump Releases Expanded Map of the United States: From Central America to Iceland US President Donald Trump posted a map on social media on Monday, overlaying the American flag across the United States, Canada, Mexico, most of Central America, Greenland, Iceland, Cuba, and Caribbean islands including Jamaica. While Trump has previously proposed acquiring sovereignty over Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal, the inclusion of Mexico and parts of the Caribbean in this map is unusual. The day before, Trump also released a map relabeling New Mexico as "New America." Iran Unveils New Missile On the 7th, Iran unveiled a new missile. Iran stated that the unveiling of the "Qassem Bashir" ballistic missile is a milestone in the country's defense strategy. This missile boasts a longer range, higher accuracy, and symbolizes Iran's shift "from passive deterrence to active deterrence." Iran claims that the "Qassem Bashir" missile uses solid fuel, electro-optical guidance, and a half-ton warhead, sending a clear message to its adversaries: Iran is no longer merely reacting passively, but actively defending itself. (CCTV) US Presidential Envoy Says US Delegation's Visit to Russia and Ukraine Achieved "Substantial Progress" US Presidential Envoy Witkov posted on social media on the 7th that the recent visit of the US delegation to Russia and Ukraine achieved "substantial progress," including progress in arranging subsequent trilateral talks. Witkov said the US delegation's visit aimed to promote further dialogue to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Prior to the visit, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day ceasefire to allow the US delegation to hold separate talks with Russia and Ukraine. Witkov, President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and officials from the US National Security Council, State Department, and Treasury Department held separate talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Security advisors from countries including the UK, Germany, and France also joined the talks in Kyiv. (Xinhua) Russian Presidential Press Secretary: Resumption of Trilateral Talks on Ukraine Not Ruled Out Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated on the 7th that Russia does not rule out the possibility of resuming trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine on the Ukraine issue, but it is too early to discuss the time and place of the talks. Peskov stated at a press conference that day that the meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump's special envoy Witkov and son-in-law Kushner was "a small step towards peace." (Xinhua) Significant divergence in maritime traffic trends between the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait Data from the ship tracking agency MarineTraffic shows that vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 28% to 77 vessels; cargo voyages decreased from 45 to 33. The number of sanctioned vessels and shadow fleets passing through decreased from 50 to 23, with another 40 vessels having uncertain routes, and 32 vessels using Iran's unilateral passage mechanism. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, however, showed the opposite trend, with vessel traffic rebounding by 9.7% to 248 vessels, and cargo voyages increasing from 103 to 109. The number of shadow fleets passing through remained around 23, and the proportion of vessels adhering to the separation of lanes was approximately 91%. Data shows that shipping in the Gulf continues to face increasing pressure, while Red Sea shipping remains more resilient. The US is increasing diplomatic pressure on Iran over its non-compliance with nuclear obligations. The US is intensifying diplomatic pressure on Iran, proposing to refer the Iranian issue to the UN Security Council due to Tehran's obstruction of inspectors' work. Inspectors are currently unable to verify the location of Iran's near-weapon-grade enriched uranium stockpile. This action is expected to take place this week at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting in Vienna. Iran has blocked the UN nuclear watchdog from inspecting its uranium stockpile for 15 consecutive months since Israel began airstrikes against Iran in June 2025. A two-page document seen by Bloomberg News shows that the US-proposed resolution demands that Iran "urgently rectify its non-compliance" and allow inspections to ensure that "nuclear material is not diverted." The IAEA is increasingly dissatisfied with Iran's obstruction of inspectors' work. IAEA Director General Grossi said at a press conference on Monday, "There has been no contact, no information, and we have been told that they will not cooperate until some kind of agreement is reached through broader political negotiations." Saudi Aramco facilities attacked again Saudi Aramco's Jizan oil facilities were attacked just a month after another attack caused a temporary disruption to some of the refinery's production. Two sources familiar with the matter said the company's oil infrastructure was attacked on Monday, and the damage is currently being assessed. Jizan is Saudi Arabia's closest industrial city to the Yemeni border and has been repeatedly attacked by Houthi rebels in the past. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said last month that the attacks caused some disruption to oil production but did not have a material impact on operations or finances. One of the sources said the scale of this attack was roughly the same as the one last month. Saudi Aramco has not yet responded to requests for comment. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has risen to 60.4%, and the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike this year is 86.4%, according to CME's "FedWatch". The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 39.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 60.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by October is 29.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 54.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 16.1%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by December is 13.6%, and the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike is 86.4%.

Domestic News

The telecommunications industry's revenue is expected to exceed 4 trillion yuan by 2030. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Information and Communication Industry." The plan proposes that by 2030, a comprehensive and high-performance next-generation communication network will be fully established, laying a solid foundation for the basic modernization of the information and communication industry by 2035. The plan outlines several key indicators covering five aspects: overall development, innovative development, green development, infrastructure, and application popularization of the information and communication industry. These include: by 2030, the information and communication industry's revenue will reach 4.1 trillion yuan; there will be 50 5G (including 5G-A) base stations per 10,000 people; the 5G (including 5G-A) user penetration rate will reach 95%; the number of gigabit-speed or higher broadband users will reach 320 million; and the intelligent computing power will reach 9800 quadrillion floating-point operations per second. (CCTV Finance)