The global commodity market is currently experiencing a strong, sustained rebound across multiple categories, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic variables that are pushing commodity prices close to 18-year highs. This rally is not driven by a single factor, but rather by the convergence of three dimensions: geopolitical supply, industrial demand, and the monetary system. It has not only completely ended the previous trend of declining global inflation, but also created new pressures and challenges for monetary policies, asset pricing, and the performance of import-intensive economies worldwide. The CRB Index Approaches 18-Year High; Current Commodity Bull Market Differs Structurally from Historical Trends Driven by multiple factors, including Middle East conflicts, demand expansion fueled by artificial intelligence, and declining market confidence in the US dollar, the commodity market has witnessed a broad-based rally across categories. The international commodity composite price index is approaching its highest level in 18 years, with energy, industrial metals, and precious metals all strengthening. As of Tuesday, the FTSE Core Commodity CRB Index was approximately 420 points, up about 30% from the end of February before the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict. The current index level is close to that of early August 2008, when prices of crude oil and various resources were surging on the eve of Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy. The index is still about 10% away from its historical high of approximately 474 points set in July 2008. This round of commodity price increases differs from previous bull markets: although the CRB composite index is approaching its historical high, the price of crude oil, which has the largest weighting in the index, is still lower than the historical highs of 2008 and 2022. The 2008 commodity price surge stemmed from the explosive demand for resources driven by China's rapid economic expansion; the 2022 price spike, however, was fueled by global anxieties about supply security following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Darn Struven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, analyzed that the 2008 oil price surge was due to a structural supply-demand imbalance—a surge in Chinese oil demand coupled with the depletion of global spare oil production capacity. Regarding the 2026 market trend, he stated that while the current supply disruptions are significant, ample inventories combined with increased US crude oil production have prevented a repeat of the extreme price surges of 2008 and 2022. However, he added that the refining sector remains structurally tight, leading to a significant increase in refining margins. While crude oil extraction capacity remains adequate, refining capacity expansion lags behind, and the premium for refined oil products will continue to be passed on to downstream consumers. Three core drivers support commodity price increases: geopolitics, industry demand, and the US dollar and central bank gold purchases. The Middle East situation is a significant contributing factor. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in late February, the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global energy transportation, has been effectively blocked. This strait handles nearly 30% of global crude oil shipments, and continued disruption will fuel expectations of a strained global energy supply chain. Currently, international benchmark crude oil prices are more than 30% higher than before the conflict; benchmark natural gas prices in Europe and Asia have more than doubled. Demand expansion driven by emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and decarbonization is also influencing commodity prices. Kazutomo Nomura, a director at Mizuho Bank, stated, "Copper is widely used in infrastructure and electrical cables for home appliances. With the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and the continued advancement of electrification, the market expects increased copper demand from data centers and electric vehicles, driving up copper prices." Unlike traditional cyclical demand, AI computing infrastructure and new energy transformation represent medium- to long-term structural demand growth, which will continue to support the bottom valuation of industrial metals. International copper prices hit a nearly seven-month high on Monday. The third major driving factor is the weakening market confidence in the US dollar. A depreciating dollar typically boosts various commodities priced in US dollars. Gold prices, for example, have risen approximately five times since 2008. Nicholas Flaper, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery in Australia, believes the core reasons are the deteriorating fiscal conditions of various countries and the shift in central bank stances. Driven by concerns about the US fiscal situation and the risk of freezing dollar assets, central banks worldwide have increased their gold purchases since 2022, continuously supporting gold prices. Central bank gold purchases are no longer short-term hedging operations, but rather a long-term strategic allocation behavior by many countries to adjust their foreign exchange reserve structure and reduce the proportion of dollar assets. Koichi Fujishiro, a researcher at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Japan, points out: "Multiple forces are resonating: the Middle East crisis has brought supply concerns, artificial intelligence has spurred new structural demand, and the global trend of de-dollarization is compounded." Therefore, the price surge has spread from energy to precious metals and non-ferrous metals, driving up the entire commodity index. Rising commodity prices have interrupted the downward trend in inflation, limiting the room for monetary policy easing in major economies . This situation could potentially push up inflation again, creating difficulties for major economies in formulating monetary policies. Previously, major economies formulated policies based on the premise that price growth would gradually decline. The continued rise in commodity prices will directly interrupt the expected downward path of inflation, making the policy balancing act by central banks more difficult. The impact of rising prices is not limited to the commodity market. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) previously predicted that global inflation would fall from its peak of 8.7% in 2022 to 4.1% in 2025. However, in its July update to the World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised its forecast, predicting that global inflation would rebound to 4.7% in 2026. The IMF stated that "the process of declining inflation that began in early 2024 has stalled," with changes in the Middle East being a significant contributing factor. The resurgence of inflation stickiness means that prices are unlikely to quickly return to the target range of around 2% set by central banks. This resurgence of inflation will pose a thorny challenge to the monetary policies of major economies. The original policy benchmark for many countries was a sustained cooling of inflation. In the United States, President Trump has been urging the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates; however, the inflationary pressure from rising commodity prices will compress the Fed's room for monetary easing. If inflation continues to rebound, the market may even re-price the possibility of interest rate hikes, directly impacting risk assets such as US Treasury bonds and stocks.