The global energy market has recently experienced increased volatility, with geopolitical conflicts becoming the core factor driving commodity price trends. The escalating tensions between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf, showing no signs of de-escalation, have completely reshaped supply and demand expectations in the crude oil market, pushing international oil prices sharply higher, with Brent crude successfully breaking through the $100 mark. Simultaneously, the recovery in Chinese spot crude oil purchases, internal disagreements among OPEC+ oil-producing countries, changes in US refined product inventories, and the European natural gas supply crisis, among other factors, have further exacerbated energy price volatility. This article will analyze the logic behind this round of commodity price changes and the risks to the future from the perspectives of crude oil market conditions, market demand, supply patterns, inventory data, and the European natural gas market. Brent Crude Breaks $100, Geopolitical Risks Push Oil Prices Up ICE Brent crude oil rose above $100 per barrel for the first time since July yesterday, with upward momentum continuing into this morning's trading session. This round of oil price increases is not simply driven by short-term speculative funds, but rather by the market's continued pricing in of geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf. The complex regional power struggles and the lack of a credible diplomatic solution to de-escalate the situation suggest that the conflict could escalate further, keeping upward pressure on oil prices firmly in place. Iran has stated it is prepared to further escalate the conflict, while President Trump has indicated that the conflict is likely to continue until after the midterm elections in early November. The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly one-third of the world's seaborne oil trade. If the conflict expands and disrupts shipping through the strait, it will directly trigger severe shocks to the global oil supply chain, representing the biggest tail risk in the current oil market. In recent weeks, actual crude oil shipping volumes have outperformed pessimistic market expectations. However, if the conflict escalates into actual shipping disruptions, the supply and demand dynamics in the crude oil market will tighten rapidly. Chinese Buying: Spot Market Recovery Determines the Sustainability of the Rally China's increased activity in the crude oil spot market has further fueled bullish sentiment, particularly evident in the strong performance of Dated Brent crude oil prices in the North Sea spot market. For most of the current Middle East conflict, China has proactively reduced its crude oil imports to regulate inventories, while indirectly contributing to the rebalancing of the global crude oil market through flexible purchasing strategies. Although China's current crude oil imports are still significantly lower than the same period last year, import volumes have begun to recover from the low point in June, and recent spot market trading indicates that this upward trend is likely to continue. The pace of China's purchasing is a key variable determining whether this round of oil price increases will continue or whether the rally will quickly subside; the strength of China's buying will directly affect the supply and demand balance in the global crude oil spot market. OPEC+: Iraq Demands Increased Quota, Internal Divisions Intensify Besides the risk of shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf, divisions among OPEC+ member countries are widening. Reports indicate that Iraq is actively seeking a significant increase in its crude oil production quota, hoping to use 6 million barrels per day as the baseline for quota calculation. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) assesses that Iraq's sustainable crude oil production capacity is only 4.9 million barrels per day. Iraq's proposed baseline target significantly exceeds its actual stable production capacity. If this demand is met, it will directly impact the overall effectiveness of OPEC+'s production cut implementation. After a series of upheavals in the Persian Gulf region this year, persuading some oil-producing countries to continue implementing production limits in 2027 will become significantly more difficult. The internal power struggles within OPEC+ will continue to bring uncertainty to the international crude oil supply. Inventories: API Shows Decline in Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories Data released overnight by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels last week. In terms of refined products, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories increased by 2 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report, which is of greater market interest, will be released later today. With the global diesel market currently experiencing a tight supply, changes in distillate fuel inventories will be a key indicator for the market. Marginal changes in inventories will quickly be transmitted to diesel crack spreads, further impacting global refined product prices.