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2026-09-15 19:10:08
[Rising Oil Prices Fuel Interest Rate Hike Expectations; Reserve Bank of India Governor Meets with Finance Minister] ⑴ Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra met with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday, ahead of the October Monetary Policy Committee meeting. ⑵ India's GDP grew by 7.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of this fiscal year, demonstrating strong resilience amid global turmoil; the Reserve Bank of India maintained its repo rate at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive time in August. ⑶ International crude oil prices, boosted by geopolitical conflicts, broke through $100 per barrel, prompting market calls for the central bank to raise benchmark interest rates. A research report from the State Bank of India recommends a 25 basis point rate hike in both October and December. ⑷ The report estimates that if geopolitical risks continue to escalate, oil prices could reach as high as $121 per barrel in the next two weeks; under high oil price conditions, India's inflation data for October and November may climb above 6.4%. (5) The research report points out that market expectations have reversed in just one month. Previously, the market generally predicted that interest rates would remain unchanged for a long time, and this interest rate hike recommendation does not follow the Fed's policy changes.
