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2026-09-15 20:04:08
[Russian Central Bank's Budget Forecasts Are Conservative] ⑴ The Central Bank of Russia has adopted a fairly conservative stance in assessing the parameters of the federal budget for the next three years, with a low probability of exceeding its basic structural deficit forecast. ⑵ The head of the Central Bank's monetary policy department stated that from the perspective of parameterizing the budget forecasts for the next three years, the current approach is quite cautious, and the probability of actually exceeding these parameters is lower than estimated at the beginning of the year. ⑶ The Governor of the Central Bank of Russia previously stated that the central bank assumes a basic structural deficit of 2% of GDP in the federal budget for 2026, 1% in 2027, and 0.5% in 2028. ⑷ The central bank has formulated its own assessment of the possible basic structural deficit in the Russian budget, considering that actual spending has exceeded the Ministry of Finance's initial forecast, but adjustments will be made after the government submits updated macroeconomic forecasts and budget parameters. ⑸ The Governor stated that a zero deficit was previously included in the basic budget parameters, but the Ministry of Finance has indicated that this level may be maintained until 2028, therefore the central bank cannot take a zero balance into consideration, and has now presented its own assessment of the possible trajectory of budget balance. (6) The Russian Finance Minister previously stated that the draft federal budget for the next three years should envision achieving zero structural deficits by 2029.
