On Tuesday (September 15), spot gold prices fell while spot silver prices rose slightly during the early US trading session. The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting, and with oil prices remaining high and US Treasury yields nearing multi-year highs, the market widely bet on a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed. Spot gold traded around $4293.97 per ounce, down 0.11%; spot silver was at $63.84, up 0.97% on the day. The current market positioning is primarily driven by interest rate repricing following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Last week's producer and consumer inflation data did not provide sufficient evidence to dispel market expectations of a Fed rate hike; however, the latest oil price shock further strengthened the market's propensity to raise rates. Interest rate futures indicate an 86%–93% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at this week's Fed meeting. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note briefly touched 5.04%, a new high since 2007, before falling back to around 5%. For gold, the key issue is no longer limited to whether the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday, but rather whether Chairman Kevin Warsh will signal that this rate hike will initiate a larger-scale tightening cycle. Compared to the market's anticipated rate hike, this policy guidance is more crucial for precious metals—it will determine whether the upward pressure from real interest rates will continue into the fourth quarter. Gold and silver are currently primarily viewed as interest rate-sensitive assets, with their safe-haven attributes taking a backseat. From the latest technical charts, gold is fluctuating around the support level of $4283; silver, after another round of yield-driven selling pressure, is struggling to hold above $62.34. Safe-haven buying from the Middle East remains, but the environment of a stronger dollar, higher energy prices, and US Treasury yields above 5% continues to suppress the precious metals sector. Therefore, the short-term trend of precious metals depends on the Fed's policy statement: if this rate hike is a one-off operation, gold and silver prices are expected to rebound; if it signals the start of a longer period of tightening, the upside potential will be limited. The Strait of Hormuz remains a core geopolitical variable affecting oil prices, inflation expectations, and safe-haven buying. The US has made some progress in reopening the strait and weakening Iran's control over the waterway, but the conflict has not yet subsided; Iranian-backed forces launched attacks, damaging Saudi energy infrastructure, and the closure of east-west oil pipelines has cut off a key alternative shipping route around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices broke through $105 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil held above $100. Gold is currently in a contradictory situation: escalating tensions in the Gulf and shipping risks could drive safe-haven buying, but rising oil prices could exacerbate inflationary pressures, pushing up US Treasury yields and further justifying the Fed's continued interest rate hikes. Global markets generally weakened before the US stock market opened. Rising oil prices, increasing yields, and uncertainty surrounding Fed policy dampened risk appetite, leading to lower US stock index futures; European stocks mostly closed lower, and Asian markets also performed weakly, with the global bond market sell-off continuing. The bond market has become the core of cross-asset correlation, with the 10-year US Treasury yield hovering around 5%. Investors are focused on whether the Fed will hedge against financial market pressures or prioritize addressing inflation. Other major external market performance: WTI crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange strengthened, holding above $100 per barrel; Brent crude oil prices were above $105 per barrel; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield was close to 5%; and the US dollar index strengthened. Technical Analysis (Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678) The next upside target for spot gold bulls is to push the price back above the $4316.00 resistance level; if it holds above this level, the next targets are $4355.00, and then $4402.00. The short-term downside target for bears is a break below the $4283.00 support level, with further downside targets at $4252.00, and then $4223.00. The first resistance level is $4316.00, followed by $4355.00; the first support level is $4283.00, followed by $4252.00. (Spot silver daily chart source: FX678) After spot silver prices rose above $63.76, the next target is $64.51, then $65.28. The downside target for the bears is a break below $62.34, with further downside targets at $61.60 and $60.81. First resistance level: $63.76, then $64.51; first support level: $62.34, then $61.60.