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2026-09-16 02:04:12
[The Federal Reserve has historically never acted against the market's certainty of expectations, with no exceptions in the past decades.] Bond traders widely anticipate a rate hike from the Fed on Wednesday, and this expectation is so certain that it has remained accurate for decades. Bloomberg data from 2008 to the present shows that whenever market expectations for a rate hike have climbed to this level, the Fed has consistently followed through with the hike. "The market is currently leaving absolutely no room to react to the Fed keeping rates unchanged or implementing a dovish rate hike," said Caesar Maasry, head of investment research at Lunate. "Wednesday's Fed decision will be the most influential interest rate decision in recent times," said Alex Cohen, foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America. "Currently, market expectations for a rate hike are around 90%, and if the Fed chooses to keep rates unchanged at this point, it would be an unprecedented surprise."
