The USD/CAD pair continued its upward trend in Asian trading on Wednesday, hovering around 1.3930, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains and reaching a near two-week high. Market focus has now shifted from the recent strength of the US dollar to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Whether the pair can effectively break through the 100-day simple moving average will be a crucial technical signal for determining its next move. The Federal Reserve will conclude its September 15-16 policy meeting on Wednesday, with the market widely expecting a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate. Compared to the interest rate decision itself, investors are paying closer attention to the latest economic forecasts, the dot plot, and the policy statements made by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at the post-meeting press conference. If policy guidance continues to emphasize inflation risks and the necessity of maintaining high interest rates, the US dollar may receive further support, pushing USD/CAD upward to test key technical resistance. Recent US inflationary pressures remain a significant factor in the market's reassessment of the Fed's policy path. High international oil prices and rising energy costs could further push up inflation expectations, increasing market expectations that the Fed will maintain a relatively hawkish policy stance. Meanwhile, persistently high US Treasury yields have also enhanced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. The strong US dollar index is one of the key drivers of the recent continuous rise in USD/CAD. Safe-haven demand also supports the US dollar. Continued uncertainty in the Middle East and energy supply risks are pushing up oil prices and increasing market volatility. In an environment of cautious risk appetite, the safe-haven properties of the US dollar are becoming more apparent. In contrast, the Canadian dollar is suppressed by expectations of domestic monetary policy. The market anticipates a relatively accommodative policy stance from the Bank of Canada, and changes in the US-Canada interest rate differential are putting some pressure on the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, trade concerns between the US and Canada remain a significant variable influencing the Canadian dollar's performance. If Canadian economic growth expectations are further hampered by external demand and trade factors, the Canadian dollar may continue to face pressure. However, high oil prices provide some buffer for the Canadian dollar. As a major energy-exporting economy, rising oil prices typically improve Canada's terms of trade and support the Canadian dollar through energy export revenue. Currently, international oil prices remain near recent highs, meaning further gains in USD/CAD are not without resistance. If oil prices continue to be strong, the Canadian dollar's commodity currency nature may limit the upside potential of USD/CAD. Therefore, USD/CAD is more likely to remain range-bound at high levels before the Fed's decision. On one hand, a strong US dollar, high US Treasury yields, and expectations of Fed policy provide upward momentum for the exchange rate; on the other hand, high oil prices and the Canadian dollar's inherent energy attributes inhibit rapid price increases. What the market really needs to focus on is whether expectations for US dollar interest rates will change further after the Fed's decision. From a daily chart perspective, USD/CAD has risen for the sixth consecutive trading day, with significantly strengthened short-term bullish momentum. The pair is currently testing a key resistance area near the 100-day simple moving average. Meanwhile, the 1.3930 level is also a recent area of dense trading volume. If the pair can effectively hold above the 100-day moving average and further break through the resistance near 1.3950, the short-term technical structure is likely to tilt further towards the bulls, with the 1.4000 psychological level and previous highs as potential resistance levels. Indicators show that the pair has rebounded continuously, with strengthened short-term momentum. However, after consecutive gains, caution is needed regarding the potential for rapid volatility following the Fed's decision. If the policy outcome meets market expectations, and the Fed's rhetoric does not further reinforce hawkish expectations, USD/CAD may experience a "profit-taking" scenario, pushing the pair back to the recent breakout area. The first support level to watch is around 1.3856, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and is currently the nearest technical support. If the exchange rate breaks below this area, further support lies at the 1.3800 psychological level and the recent swing low near 1.3735. On the 4-hour chart, USD/CAD remains in an uptrend, but the 1.3930-1.3950 area is a key resistance level that short-term bulls need to break through. A successful break and hold above this level could open up further upside potential; however, repeated attempts to break higher may be met with resistance, potentially leading to a technical pullback, with short-term trading focusing on the effectiveness of support around 1.3856. Editor's Summary: The USD/CAD pair is currently in a crucial breakout phase after a continuous rise, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision being a key catalyst for determining its short-term direction. A strong US dollar, high US Treasury yields, and expectations of Fed policy continue to provide upward momentum, while high oil prices offer some hedging through the Canadian dollar's energy attribute. Going forward, key levels to watch are the 100-day moving average and the area around 1.3950; simultaneously, pay attention to the dual impact of Fed policy guidance and oil price changes on the exchange rate.