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2026-09-16 17:54:09
[High Threshold for Dollar Strength, Fed Decision Key] ⑴ Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG, pointed out in a report that unless the Fed strengthens market expectations of an extended rate hike cycle in its later decision, the dollar may struggle to gain upward momentum. ⑵ Institutional data shows that the market has almost fully priced in Wednesday's 25 basis point rate hike and expects a cumulative rate hike of nearly 95 basis points by September 2027. ⑶ Hardman believes that this pricing sets a high threshold for the Fed to release a more hawkish rate hike signal than expected. ⑷ He further pointed out that the Fed's communication is unlikely to clearly convey how much further tightening is needed. ⑸ If policy guidance fails to exceed current market expectations, the dollar may face short-term downward pressure; subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the wording of the decision statement and the chairman's remarks.
