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2026-09-16 18:18:10
[ECB Wage Tracker Indicator Points to Moderate Increase in the First Half of 2027] ⑴ The ECB Wage Tracker Indicator has been updated to cover the wage agreement signed at the end of August 2026, with forward-looking coverage extended to the end of June 2027. ⑵ Forward-looking information indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.7% in the first half of 2027. ⑶ Employee coverage will remain limited at 28.8% in the first half of 2027, but will gradually increase as the wage agreement is signed. ⑷ The tracker covers active collective bargaining agreements, showing negotiated wage pressure of 2.2% in 2026 after smoothing out one-off payments, based on 46.9% employee coverage in participating countries. ⑸ The overall wage tracker indicator is 2.7% in Q1 2027, based on 32.5% coverage, and 2.8% in Q2, based on 25.1% coverage. (6) The lower wage tracking indicator in the first half of 2026 reflects the mechanical downward pull of one-off payments made in the second half of 2024 and not repeated the following year; these effects completely dissipate in the second half of 2026. (7) The wage tracking indicator after smoothing one-off payments has been slightly revised downward for 2026 compared to the data released in July 2026. (8) The overall wage tracking indicator remains largely unchanged for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, despite a significant increase in employee coverage. (9) The wage tracking indicator without smoothing one-off payments slowed to 2.6% in 2026 from 3.0% in 2025, while the wage tracking indicator excluding one-off payments averaged 2.6% in 2026, indicating that one-off payments had a limited impact on recent collective bargaining agreements. (10) On a quarterly basis, all indicators were 2.7% in Q1 2027 and 2.8% in Q2 2027. (11) The overall wage tracking indicator is better suited to describing the quarterly or monthly dynamics of negotiated wages because it smooths out one-off payments over time, while the unsmoothed indicator is better suited to describing annual dynamics. (12) This tracking indicator may be revised, and its forward-looking portion should not be interpreted as a prediction, as it only captures information available for currently active collective bargaining agreements.
