Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-09-16 18:40:08
[France Lowers Wheat Export Forecast, Market Sentiment May Be Disrupted] ⑴ In its latest forecast released Wednesday, French agricultural agency FranceAgriMer lowered its 2026/27 forecast for French soft wheat exports to regions outside the EU to approximately 6.3 million tons, a significant drop from its previous estimate of 7 million tons. ⑵ At the same time, the agency also lowered its forecast for French wheat exports to the EU this year from 7.4 million tons to approximately 7.1 million tons, both figures showing a downward revision. ⑶ The double downward revision of export forecasts reflects that overseas demand for French wheat in the new year may be weaker than previously expected, and a reassessment of supply and trade flows is underway. ⑷ In terms of market sentiment, this adjustment may put some pressure on European wheat futures prices, as a weaker export outlook means that the pace of French inventory depletion may slow. ⑸ Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual shipment progress in France and wheat price competition from other major exporting countries. If demand remains weak, the price center may shift further downward. (6) Overall, this revision signals a weakening momentum in French wheat exports. Close attention should be paid to whether new supporting factors emerge on the demand side.
