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2026-09-16 19:10:09
[KPMG UK Commentary on Latest Labour Market Data] ⑴ The latest UK labor market data reinforces the dovish views of the Monetary Policy Committee, indicating that the labor market remains a key factor driving inflation down. The Bank of England needs to balance a weakening job market with energy-driven inflation, and is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this week. ⑵ However, the outlook for energy prices has deteriorated in recent weeks, and if this pressure persists, it will be more difficult for the central bank to maintain interest rates. ⑶ Overall wage growth remained at 3.6%, mainly supported by public sector wage agreements; private sector wage growth, representing the fundamentals of employment, was weaker, recording 2.8%. Workers' bargaining power remains insufficient, and the possibility of a significant wage rebound this year is low. Overall wage growth is expected to fall to around 2.9% by the end of the year. ⑷ The unemployment rate remained at 5.0% for the three months to July, with no sign of job vacancies recovering. High borrowing costs, weak domestic demand, and geopolitical disturbances will suppress corporate hiring, and the unemployment rate may gradually rise in the future.
