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2026-09-16 19:28:08
[Russian Refinery Attacks and Diesel Crack Spreads in Focus] ⑴ A recent Substack report indicates that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries are a key driver behind the record high diesel crack spreads in recent months. ⑵ Meanwhile, Russian President Putin recently claimed that refinery defenses have significantly improved, yet drone attacks continue. ⑶ The report raises the question of whether defenses have truly improved and attempts to find answers in statistical data. ⑷ This long-term struggle between attack and defense directly relates to the extent of damage to Russian refining capacity and the pace of refined product exports, thus affecting the tightness of global diesel supply. ⑸ Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in the frequency of attacks and refinery operating rates. If the defenses are ineffective, diesel crack spreads may continue to be supported; otherwise, they will face downward pressure.
