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[US 4-Month Treasury Auction Preview: Rollover Offers Value] ⑴ The US Treasury will auction approximately $72 billion in 4-month treasury bonds, maturing on January 19th of next year and settling on September 22nd. The net proceeds from this issuance are expected to be approximately $3 billion. ⑵ The deadline for non-competitive bidding is 11:00 AM Eastern Time, and competitive bidding is at 11:30 AM, which translates to 11:00 PM and 11:30 PM Beijing Time, respectively. ⑶ The winning bid rate for the 4-month treasury bonds maturing on January 12th, auctioned last week, was approximately 3.9%, while the current secondary market price is approximately 4.0%, resulting in a floating loss of approximately 11 basis points. ⑷ The current yield on 4-month treasury bonds is approximately 4.0%, with a rollover yield of approximately 2 basis points. The spread between 3-month and 6-month treasury bonds is approximately 14 basis points, translating to a weekly value of approximately 1 basis point, making the rollover yield attractive. (5) As interest rate hike expectations have been fully priced in until March next year, the current pricing of 4-month short-term bonds is at a reasonable level. However, significant unrealized losses on existing bonds may limit rollover demand. (6) Options market pricing trends indicate that traders believe the Federal Reserve may not implement the full extent of interest rate hikes. (7) Historical auction data shows that the average bid-to-cover ratio for 4-month short-term bonds in the last six auctions was 3.05, with indirect bidding accounting for approximately 57%, direct bidding for approximately 7%, and dealer bidding for approximately 36%. (8) Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in auction results and bidding structure to assess the strength of short-term demand and the market's pricing adjustments to the policy path.