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2026-09-16 21:08:10
[Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise, Dollar's Direction Draws Attention] ⑴ The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to implement its first rate hike in over three years, with a probability of about 90%, and the magnitude is expected to be 25 basis points. ⑵ The real factor affecting the dollar's trajectory is not the rate hike itself, but rather the Fed's statement on the inflation outlook and its openness to further tightening policies. ⑶ Historically, the dollar typically rises before the first rate hike and falls after the decision is announced, conforming to the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern. ⑷ 2022 was an exception, when runaway inflation, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the energy shock combined to keep the dollar strong even after the tightening cycle began. ⑸ However, the sample size is limited, and the statistical significance is not strong, but it can still serve as a reference for market reactions. ⑹ The dollar did not show typical strength before this round of rate hikes and is currently still about 2% lower than its summer high, suggesting that the market may be more focused on the uncertainty of US policy than on betting on a continued rise in the dollar. ⑺ Therefore, the exchange rate may experience more two-way fluctuations after the decision is announced, rather than a one-sided trend. (8) Investors need to pay attention to changes in the Federal Reserve's wording regarding the future policy path, as well as market anxieties triggered by Trump's tariff remarks. (9) If policy signals are hawkish, the dollar may receive short-term support, but its sustainability depends on the correlation between inflation and employment data. (10) Overall, market sentiment is cautious, and future focus will be on the pace of the Federal Reserve's policy and the evolution of global risk appetite.
