Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-09-16 21:22:10
[With the Fed Decision Approaching, Markets Expect Rate Hikes] ⑴ The Fed is about to announce its September interest rate decision, with market forecasts indicating an approximately 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. ⑵ Bank of America expects a September rate hike, with Waller potentially dissenting. The bank's median 2026 rate forecast is around 4.1%, and warns that a decision not to raise rates could put new upward pressure on long-term yields. ⑶ Goldman Sachs believes there are limited economic reasons for aggressive tightening, pointing out that excessive inflation largely reflects factors that should be fading, and expects some FOMC officials to be reluctant to signal further rate hikes. ⑷ UBS expects one rate hike each in September and December, with Bowman and Waller potentially dissenting today. Its median 2026 and 2027 rate forecasts are both around 3.9%. ⑸ Wells Fargo's base case scenario is two 25 basis point rate hikes in the coming months, but a "one-time" hike is still possible. ⑹ Overall, the market has largely priced in the interest rate hike. The real game lies in the dot plot and the wording of the statement. If the policy signal is hawkish, long-term yields and the US dollar may be supported. The focus in the future will be on the degree of dissent within the committee and the subsequent path guidance.
