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2026-09-16 21:28:09
[CBOT Agricultural Commodities Diverge, Wheat and Corn Under Pressure, Soybeans Rise] ⑴ Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures resumed trading on Wednesday, with wheat expected to fall by about 1 to 3 cents per bushel, corn flat to down about 2 cents, and soybeans rising by about 3 to 9 cents. ⑵ Wheat futures were pressured by technical selling triggered by weaker crude oil prices, but concerns about disruptions to Black Sea grain exports and reduced production in major global producing regions limited the decline. ⑶ A Statistics Canada survey showed that Canadian wheat production in 2026 is expected to decline by about 11% from 2025 to about 36.1 million metric tons. This survey is partly based on satellite and agro-climate data. ⑷ Corn futures weakened due to lower crude oil prices and the approaching harvest in the U.S. Midwest. Brazil's National Crop Agency expects the country's 2026/27 corn production to reach about 148 million metric tons, an increase of about 3% from the previous quarter, marking the country's largest harvest on record. (5) Soybean futures rose for the third consecutive trading day, supported by strong US supply and demand and expectations that high production costs in Brazil will limit planting area expansion. The market anticipates Chinese purchases ahead of the US-China leaders' meeting next week. (6) Brazil's National Crop Agency stated that the country's soybean production in 2026/27 is expected to increase by approximately 0.7% to approximately 181.64 million metric tons, but the increase in planted area will be the smallest in 20 years. (7) Statistics Canada's survey shows that Canadian canola production in 2026 is expected to decrease by approximately 0.8% compared to 2025, to approximately 22.1 million metric tons. (8) Overall, crude oil trends, South American production prospects, and trade expectations are jointly driving the divergence in agricultural products. Future focus will be on the impact of the US-China meeting's outcome and harvest progress on prices.
