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Live Updates  >  Live Update Details

2026-09-16 21:30:08

[US Retail Sales Rebound Strongly in August, But Structure Reveals Complexities] ⑴ US retail sales rose approximately 1.2% month-over-month in August, exceeding market expectations of approximately 0.8%, marking the largest increase since March. ⑵ Excluding automobiles, retail sales rose approximately 1.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of approximately 0.5%. Controlled-group retail sales also rose approximately 1.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations by approximately 1 percentage point. ⑶ July data was slightly revised, with most revisions within approximately 0.1 percentage points. The overall figure was revised to approximately -0.5%, and excluding automobiles, to approximately -0.2%. ⑷ While the retail rebound appears encouraging, the actual situation is slightly more complex. The largest contributor was gas stations, which rose approximately 3.1% month-over-month in August, approximately 21% higher than the August 2025 projection. ⑸ Renewed tensions in the Middle East over the past month pushed up energy and gasoline prices, leading to a approximately 0.6% month-over-month increase in automobile and parts sales, recovering growth after a decline of approximately 1.8% in July. (6) Other seasonal categories also contributed to the overall growth in August, indicating a more organic increase in actual transactions. (7) Back-to-school and Labor Day promotions likely boosted non-store retail, which grew by approximately 2.6% month-over-month. Sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments, and bookstores rose by approximately 1.2%, electronics and appliances stores by approximately 1.6%, and miscellaneous retailers by approximately 1.9%. (8) The only category to record a decline was building materials and garden equipment, which fell by approximately 0.2% month-over-month. (9) Overall, the data was strong but heavily influenced by energy prices and seasonal factors. Future focus will be on whether consumer momentum can be sustained and how energy costs will erode actual purchasing power.

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