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2026-09-18 18:24:09
[Fed Officials' Speeches Draw Attention, Market Focuses on Interest Rate Clues] ⑴ The S&P 500 rose on Thursday, bringing its year-to-date gain to over 11%, just about 2% shy of its record high reached in mid-August. ⑵ Rate hikes would increase borrowing costs and slow economic growth, posing a potential challenge to the stock market, but Wednesday's rate hike was largely priced in by the market before the meeting. ⑶ Investors viewed this decision as a test of the credibility of new Fed Chairman Warsh, assessing whether the Fed would persist in raising rates despite repeated calls from Trump for cuts. ⑷ Charles Schwab's chief trading strategist stated that the market overcame a major hurdle through this meeting. ⑸ Investors are closely watching for signs of when the Fed might raise rates again. Federal funds futures indicated a roughly 50% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting in October, just before the US midterm elections. ⑹ Following Wednesday's meeting, several Fed policymakers are expected to speak next week. Given Warsh's stated desire to avoid providing forward guidance on the interest rate path, any information regarding this round of rate hikes is likely to be particularly important. (7) Some strategists have pointed out that under Chairman Walsh’s leadership, the lack of guidance has become the new normal, and it has become more important to consult with those who are willing to speak.
