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[Drought and Geopolitical Disturbances Intertwine, Uncertainty Remains for US Wheat Farmers' Expansion Plans] ⑴ US wheat prices have risen to a near three-year high, but Kansas farmer Nelson remains uncertain about his profit prospects. ⑵ Record-breaking input costs for fertilizers and diesel, coupled with spring weather disruptions leading to a complete wheat crop failure, have dampened the willingness to expand planting. ⑶ The ongoing drought in the southern Great Plains has worsened planting conditions, with some farmers even considering reducing acreage rather than chasing higher prices. ⑷ Market strategists point out that drought in Europe and the US is eroding harvests, and the strong El Niño signal further complicates the crop outlook. ⑸ Wheat stocks in major exporting countries are reportedly at their second-lowest levels in history, and Australia's planted area has decreased by more than 10% due to drought expectations and rising fertilizer prices. ⑹ El Niño may also bring wetter conditions to the southern Great Plains in the fall and winter; during the last strong event, US winter wheat yields reached record highs. ⑺ Attacks on Black Sea port facilities have disrupted grain shipments; the region accounts for about one-third of global wheat trade, significantly reducing supply accessibility. (8) Analysts estimate that at most 35% to 50% of Black Sea wheat may be diverted for export, but this will take longer and be more costly. (9) Some agricultural research institute leaders worry that the combination of reduced yields due to weather and geopolitical shocks may push global food prices higher than current levels. (10) The US winter wheat planting area is expected to increase by about 10% compared to last year, but the historically low harvest area indicates that structural contraction is unlikely to be reversed by one year of high prices. (11) Farmers need yields at or above average levels to cover the high break-even costs; otherwise, expanding planting may not necessarily increase profits. (12) Excessive dryness in the soil of the Southern Great Plains has already affected seed germination; subsequent weather and input costs remain key variables in determining planting decisions.