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2026-09-18 20:50:12
[ING: Euro/Dollar Under Short-Term Pressure, Rebound Possible by Year-End] ⑴ ING analysts noted in a report that the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates on Wednesday and its hints at further tightening could push the euro/dollar exchange rate lower in the coming weeks. ⑵ They believe that if oil prices surge again and the Fed raises rates as early as October, the euro/dollar could fall below 1.14. ⑶ In an extreme scenario, the exchange rate could even test the June low of around 1.132. ⑷ However, the institution judges that the Fed is likely to raise rates in December in sync with the ECB, which should have a neutral impact on the exchange rate. ⑸ From a market sentiment perspective, widening interest rate differentials and rising energy costs are the main factors suppressing the euro. ⑹ If oil prices fall and risk appetite improves, ING still expects the euro/dollar exchange rate to rise to 1.16 by the end of the year. ⑺ Further attention should be paid to oil price trends, signals from the December meetings of the US and ECBs, and changes in overall risk sentiment. ⑻ Overall, a short-term bearish bias coexists with a medium-term bullish outlook; the exchange rate path depends on the interplay between energy and policy pace.
